Projections

January natural gas plunged Wednesday as traders attempted to factor in an ever-increasing storage surplus and noted continued mild weather projections. At the close January had tumbled 14.3 cents to $3.136 and February had fallen 13.4 cents to $3.187. January crude oil imploded $5.19 to $94.95/bbl.

September natural gas rose Tuesday despite projections showing moderating temperatures and higher inventory injections. At the close September natural gas had risen 5.9 cents to $3.994 but failed to settle above important resistance at $4, and October had added 5.8 cents to $4.015. September crude oil plunged $2.01 to $79.30/bbl.

Although it missed its long-sought 20% renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goal last year, California is on track to hit it this year if projections by the investor-owned utilities (IOU) turn out to be correct and by 2013 if other forecasts turn out to be more accurate. This was the essence of a quarterly report released last Monday by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).

Caiman Energy has completed a 120 MMcf/d cryogenic processing plant in the Marcellus Shale in Marshall County, WV, and, prompted by drilling projections from existing and potential customers, plans to open a 200 MMcf/d facility at the same location later this year, the Dallas-based company said Wednesday.

Revised projections show less liquefied natural gas (LNG) coming to the United States than analysts at Barclays Capital previously thought. However, domestic production growth has been more robust than they expected. Gas will need to displace coal for power generation in order for the storage injection season to end with about 4 Tcf underground, the analysts said in a recent note.

Revised projections show less liquefied natural gas (LNG) coming to the United States than analysts at Barclays Capital previously thought. However, domestic production growth has been more robust than they expected. Gas will need to displace coal for power generation in order for the storage injection season to end with about 4 Tcf underground, the analysts said in a recent note.

Due to forecasts of mild Southeast weather, Southern Natural Gas cited projections of high storage injection requirements during the weekend in announcing that an OFO Type 6 for long imbalances would be in effect on its system Saturday until further notice. Tiered imbalance penalties will be assessed to shippers exceeding allocated deliveries by 2% or more (those with long imbalances of less than 2% or 200 Dth/d will not be penalized).

There appears to be a sea change in the making for the natural gas market as the focus shifts from the current mild weather and almost full storage to projections of a rapid fall-off in production. Analysts now are warning of a gathering storm in the form of higher prices this winter and into 2010, particularly if the economic recovery puts more industrial demand back online.

There appears to be a sea change in the making for the natural gas market as the focus shifts from the current mild weather and almost full storage to projections of a rapid fall-off in production. Analysts now are warning of a gathering storm in the form of higher prices this winter and into 2010, particularly if the economic recovery puts more industrial demand back online.