Projections

While getting more attention in recent projections from state energy planners, one of California’s most vociferous independent oil/gas producers is eyeing the long shot possibility it might be able to purchase some of the smaller properties that ChevronTexaco is considering selling among its vast producing properties in the state’s sprawling central valley.

Market price projections and the advent of expanded native generation load have the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) on the prowl for more of its own natural gas supplies, a muni official heading the effort said last week in an interview with NGI.

Market price projections and the advent of expanded native generation load have the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) on the prowl for more of its own natural gas supplies, a muni official heading the effort said Tuesday in an interview with Power Market Today.

Off-peak wholesale power prices on a forward basis have “strengthened considerably” from New Mexico-based PNM Resources Inc.’s projections, a company official told analysts last week during a conference call on PNM’s 2002 financial results.

A ten-year snapshot of California’s natural gas future could re-touched or rendered out of focus in the months ahead, depending on more current residential/commercial demand data and whether or not the state’s sagging economy rebounds, according to one of the principal authors of the California Energy Commission’s (CEC’s) last staff gas assessment.

A ten-year snapshot of California’s natural gas future could re-touched or rendered out of focus in the months ahead, depending on more current residential/commercial demand data and whether or not the state’s sagging economy rebounds, according to one of the principal authors of the California Energy Commission’s (CEC’s) last staff gas assessment.

Assuming the weather cooperates, spot natural gas prices are expected to average about $3.12/Mcf next winter, up about 70 cents from prices during last year’s heating season, but “only” 10-15% higher than current gas prices, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It projects the annual gas price will average about $2.78/Mcf, down significantly from the year-ago level of $4 and down 11 cents from its July forecast. EIA also lowered its 2003 price forecast 20 cents to $3.02.

Assuming the weather cooperates, spot natural gas prices are expected to average about $3.12/Mcf next winter, up about 70 cents from prices during last year’s heating season, but “only” 10-15% higher than current gas prices, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). It projects the annual gas price will average about $2.78/Mcf, down significantly from the year-ago level of $4 and down 11 cents from its July forecast. EIA also lowered its 2003 price forecast 20 cents to $3.02.

If the projections of a leading industry analyst are correct, the robust prices of gas for fall delivery may be trading as much as 70 cents lower upon expiration, mainly because of the gas storage situation.