Predicts

Analysts at Raymond James & Associates predicted last week in a research note that “the U.S. will be in the midst of another full-blown natural gas crisis within the next 12 months” because of an economic recovery and a decline in gas drilling. Several prominent industry consultants, however, quickly labeled the remarks sensationalism designed to grab headlines and sell energy stocks.

Spot prices continue to languish below $2.20 with some speculators predicting another dip below $2 because of the warm winter and the resulting oversupply situation in storage, but that hasn’t stopped some observers on Wall Street from predicting the sky will be falling again next winter with prices rocketing to unexpected levels and gas in short supply.

With the drought that plagued the northwest region of the country for most of 2001 appearing to be over, the resulting increase in hydropower will likely not put natural gas-fired generation out of business, according to Raymond James & Associates Inc. in its Stat of the Week. Raymond James analyst J. Marshall Adkins said the negative impact on gas-fired electricity generation from the increase in hydropower will be mostly offset by a reduction in nuclear power generation in 2002.

With the drought that plagued the northwest region of the country for most of 2001 appearing to be over, the resulting increase in hydropower will likely not put natural gas-fired generation out of business, according to Raymond James & Associates Inc. in its Stat of the Week. Raymond James analyst J. Marshall Adkins said the negative impact on gas-fired electricity generation from the increase in hydropower will be mostly offset by a reduction in nuclear power generation in 2002.

Dynegy Inc.’s bonds were raised to “overweight” from “neutral” in a revised report by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. on Monday. The revision followed the “company’s strong performance in the fourth quarter, its focus on debt reduction and our belief that Dynegy has a reasonable probability that it will prevail in the lawsuit with Enron over the aborted merger last year.”

Given the bearish forces in the natural gas market, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) predicts that gas prices, which are hovering at about $2.40/Mcf for the February 2002 futures contract, will continue on a downward trajectory for the next six months, falling 30 to 50 cents more.

Given the bearish forces in the natural gas market, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) predicts that gas prices, which are hovering at about $2.40/Mcf for the February 2002 futures contract, will continue on a downward trajectory for the next six months, falling 30 to 50 cents more.

Despite predictions from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and energy industry analysts that gas production probably will be flat to slightly higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, analysts from Raymond James & Associates said a recent survey shows domestic natural gas production actually may be down 1.5-2% from the third quarter.

Despite predictions from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and energy industry analysts that gas production probably will be flat to slightly higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, analysts from Raymond James & Associates said a recent survey shows domestic natural gas production actually may be down 1.5-2% from the third quarter.