The Northeast power grid could be tested this summer, but it looks like California will get another break because of forecasts for cooler than normal temperatures, according to the latest information from Weather Services International (WSI).

WSI is calling for warmer than normal early summer temperatures across most of the United States, but much above normal readings in the Northeast. WSI expects the April-through-June period to be warmer than normal for most of the country, with the exception of the major cities in California, e.g., San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego. The warmest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Southern Plains, Southeast, and Northeast, e.g., Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Cleveland, New York, Boston.

“We expect June to be very warm in New York, New England and the PJM markets,” said Jeffrey A. Shorter, vice president of marketing for WSI. “The dividing line will be between PJM and SERC. In the whole May, June, July period it looks like it’s going to be very warm in the Northeast and they should start to [consider] some temperature related [price] spikes.”

Energy Security Analysis Inc. expects the early summer heat in New York and New England to test the power system, unlike what occurred during the cool period last July. WSI’s forecast for a warmer than normal July and August – especially in major cities – could spell a strain for the already delicate capacity balances in critical areas like New York City, ESAI said.

“The whole country is going to be warm with the exception of SERC, East Texas and the California coast,” Shorter said. “It looks like for at least the first half of the summer the [power] load out in California will be below normal. We’re fairly confident about that.”

WSI’s expectation of below-normal temperatures in California is different from the National Weather Service’s outlook, in which above-normal temperatures are predicted, Shorter noted. He added that WSI accurately forecasted a cool beginning of last summer in California, too.

WSI’s three month outlook includes the following predictions:

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