Outweighed

Exporting liquefied domestic natural gas to world markets would have its downsides, but they would be outweighed by economic and other benefits, according to an analysis by a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The United States should approve export applications but let gas markets decide whether they actually exports actually occur, according to his analysis.

As sources had expected, the nearly stationary presence of a production-disrupting tropical depression off the Louisiana coast was outweighed by the impending significant reduction of air conditioning load in much of the market and the extra decline of industrial demand associated with a holiday weekend. The result was falling prices at nearly all points Friday.

A 7.1-cent drop by prompt-month futures a day earlier and the usual negative impact of industrial load loss over a weekend were outweighed by forecasts of continued near-freezing lows in much of North America in rallying most of the cash market to moderate gains Friday.

Gains handily outweighed losses in mixed price movement Monday while an ice storm continued to rage through the central U.S. Transco’s Zone 6-New York City pool and Iroquois Zone 2 spiked by about $1.50 to as high as $14.00 and $13.75, respectively, as very cold and weather was expected to remain in place Tuesday across the northern half of the U.S. and Canada.

Mixed price movement continued Thursday, but this time gains outweighed losses as an eastern cold spell expanded into the South and had lows diving into the 30s or lower Friday in the Midwest and Northeast. Softness was most prevalent in the West, where available supply continued to overwhelm demand and transport capacity.

As expected, Thursday’s 17.8-cent advance by August futures was outweighed in Friday’s cash market trading by relatively mild weather outside the interior West and the loss of industrial load over a weekend. The result was falling prices at nearly all points. Flat to a little more than 20 cents higher quotes at several western points kept mixed price movement in play.

Once again a few flat to modestly higher points were greatly outweighed in the cash market Tuesday by falling prices as last week’s flashback to winter continued to yield to seasonable temperatures in more areas. Cash quotes also had negative guidance from Monday’s drop of more than a quarter by May futures.

While a number of major midwestern and eastern gas consuming regions were being assaulted by a wintery mix Tuesday, natural gas futures traders pushed March futures 14.1 cents higher to $7.367. Trading was confined to a slim 19-cent range.

Prices were mixed Wednesday, but lower again in most cases. A screen plunge of nearly 40 cents the day before clearly outweighed rising cooling load in some areas in vying to be the primary cash market influence. Continued concern about the potential for running out of storage injection space later this summer or fall also contributed to overall cash softness.