Mixed price movement continued Thursday, but this time gains outweighed losses as an eastern cold spell expanded into the South and had lows diving into the 30s or lower Friday in the Midwest and Northeast. Softness was most prevalent in the West, where available supply continued to overwhelm demand and transport capacity.

A moderate majority of points were flat to a little more than 75 cents higher. Midwest and Northeast citygates, along with Northern California, tended to see the greatest price strength.

The Midwest market-area firmness had little impact on the Midcontinent and Texas production areas, where most points fell. They were among losses ranging from 2-3 cents to about $1.40.

Although there were no sub-dollar quotes, the Rockies market was in its usual funk again as all regional points but one plummeted by about 90 cents or more (Cheyenne Hub eked out an uptick of about a dime). Although PG&E and SoCalGas lifted high-linepack OFOs, Pack Strained Operating Conditions remained in effect on CIG and El Paso, and Kern River continued to report high linepack levels throughout its system. Storage injection capacity is almost nonexistent in the area.

A cold front bringing mountain snows to the Pacific Northwest allowed Sumas, Stanfield and Kingsgate to post significant gains.

The end of the California OFOs had different effects. The PG&E citygate rose about half a dollar while Malin saw Thursday’s biggest uptick of all, likely because of chilly weather in Northern California and competition for supplies from the Pacific Northwest. But even with no SoCalGas OFO in effect Friday, the Southern California border dropped a little more than 15 cents.

CenterPoint in the Midcontinent became the latest pipeline to initiate actions to alleviate problems resulting from essentially full storage (see Transportation Notes).

The Energy Information Administration pretty well met consensus expectations centered around 10 Bcf when it reported a 9 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Nov. 9, marking the first pull of the 2007-08 withdrawal season, which began Nov. 1. While nominally bullish in comparison with small injections a year ago and in the five-year average, the fact that inventories barely budged from record levels led natural gas traders at Nymex to join their petroleum product counterparts in sending the entire futures complex lower. December natural gas futures dropped 13.5 cents.

Despite the eastern cold snap, a couple of sources said they anticipate softer prices Friday at most, if not all, points. They cited Thursday’s futures weakness, the relatively light severity of the cold weather, the decline of industrial load that accompanies a weekend market and the general bearish attitude about storage.

Prices were up “a little” near the end of trading, said a Midcontinent producer, but that’s probably meaningless for Friday’s market. His own area is warming up to an expected high near 70 Friday, he said, so there’s very little localized heating load. He expects lower prices for the weekend, saying that yes, it’s cold in northern market areas but not terribly cold. He also cited the screen drop, noting that there is still some disconnect between Henry Hub cash numbers and December futures, with the Hub averaging about 35 cents less Friday.

“We’re swimming in gas supplies,” the producer continued, and there’s virtually no storage injection space left. CenterPoint’s Operational Alert was the latest sign of that condition in the Midcontinent, he said. “Storage is the thousand-pound gorilla” of the spot market because last week’s small withdrawal was so minuscule.

Northern Natural-Ventura was the sole Midcontinent point to register a gain Thursday, and it was a significant one of about 45 cents, which was in sharp contrast to Northern’s demarcation point falling a little more than a dime. A utility buyer explained that “demarc is at capacity, and Ventura is not.” Many buyers downstream of the Oakland Compressor Station bottleneck (mainly in Iowa and Minnesota) on Northern likely are forced to buy at Ventura because they can’t transport gas from demarc, he said.

The buyer said he also expects lower prices Friday.

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