Load

Reflecting heavy weather load in the Upper Plains and Upper Midwest, Northern Natural Gas declared a System Overrun Limitation for all market-area zones effective Thursday until further notice.

A moderate advance in weather load got a market response of equally moderate price increases Wednesday. With quite a few points registering close to flat again, a preponderance of the gains were 7 cents or less.

The cash market got little support from the return of industrial load following the weekend. Instead, with a much weaker screen in Nymex’s abbreviated session Monday, and with few areas experiencing bullish weather, most points softened by up to a dime or so.

Prices fell Thursday in the wake of a large storage injection report and a continuing dearth of air conditioning load. Volumes and trading activity remained minimal in the absence of futures guidance, and sources reported that the feelings of grief and numbness from the attacks against New York City’s World Trade Center and the Pentagon were slow in dissipating.

Pending a major change in direction at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), natural gas investors could get an unwanted “coal-inscopy” next month, according to analyst Fred Schultz of Raymond James & Associates Inc. Coal-fired electric generation in the country could expand by up to 40,000 MW.

Despite having considerably lighter air conditioning load than last week, the cash market ranged from flat to about a dime higher at nearly all points Monday. Most increases were fairly small, but Malin achieved one in the mid teens, while the day’s champion gainer of about 60 cents due a maintenance-related constraint was Cheyenne Hub. CIG recorded the only significant loss of more than a dime.

Based on current withdrawal rates, working gas inventory andanticipated load forecast, Questar said Thursday it expects to go intocompressed withdrawal mode at the Clay Basin storage facility withinthe next three to seven days. This prompted concern by Northwest thatsuch an action will cause it “to begin to accumulate unmanageablelevels of condensate liquids at its Green River [WY] compressorstation similar to last year, when Questar had to reduce its confirmedquantities to Northwest” (see Daily GPI,Feb. 14, 2000; Feb. 23, 2000). Bothpipes said they are working together to manage liquids at GreenRiver. Questar noted that to mitigate future impact, it plans to builda dewpoint plant at Clay Basin. Permitting is under way andcompletion is expected in late summer, Questar said. A pipelinerepresentative said “compressed withdrawal” is the difference betweenfree flow, which is the normal operational mode for Clay Basin untilabout mid-January each year, and using compressors to suck gas out ofthe ground. Currently Clay Basin is about 32% full for thenon-Questar-contracted 54 million dekatherms held by seven or eightmajor customers including Northwest, he said. Using compression inwithdrawals heats the gas so it takes longer to cool down and for theliquids to condense out of it; thus the liquids tend to form afterit’s gotten out into the pipeline, he said.

California seemed as unprepared as ever last week to meet itsenergy needs in the face of a blast of cold weather. The power gridwent through an intense struggle to meet heavy winter demandbecause a huge amount of generation was off-line due to eitherdesperately needed maintenance or low water levels behindhydroelectric dams. But the big surprise was record gas demand forSan Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), which was forced tocurtail some interruptible customers.

As an interim measure, the Cal ISO board last week approved (ona 13-10 vote) a load differentiated price cap that was promoted bya consumer advocate representative on the badly splinteredstakeholder board. The action drew swift criticism from generators.