Likelihood

A wide variety of outcomes are possible when contemplating the likelihood that an oil or natural gas injection well could increase the chance of seismic activity, including the possibility of not operating the well at all, according to a draft report by a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) workgroup.

The onshore United States “remains the No. 1 place for investment” and the likelihood for future dealmaking “remains high,” according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) CEO Bobby Tudor.

The onshore United States “remains the No. 1 place for investment” and the likelihood for future deal making “remains high,” according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) CEO Bobby Tudor.

Generally moderate weather predictions, such as the Chicago area reaching the low to mid 50s Tuesday, didn’t suggest any likelihood of spot prices increasing Monday. But cash traders either thought otherwise or were looking ahead to near the end of the week, when cold fronts would be moving into such areas as the Midwest.

Even with the likelihood of switching the Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas (LNG) project along Oregon’s south-central coast to an export facility, a major 1 Bcf/d connecting transmission pipeline project remains active and moving forward, the LNG project manager told NGI last Wednesday.

Federal and state pipeline permitting is progressing whether or not the project seeks a federal export permit.

August natural gas managed a modest end-of-week gain Friday, but both long-term and short-term traders were not optimistic about the likelihood of any market turnaround following Thursday’s losses. At the close August had risen 7.2 cents to $4.205 and September was up 6.6 cents to $4.204. August crude oil plunged $2.47 to $96.20/bbl following a weak employment report.

May natural gas futures drifted lower in uninspired trading Tuesday as traders debated the likelihood of another move lower. At the close May futures had fallen 1 cent to $4.098 and June was down 0.8 cent to $4.168. May crude oil tumbled $3.67 to $106.25/bbl.

Pennsylvania lawmakers have until Oct. 1 to keep a pledge that they would enact a severance tax on natural gas production from the Marcellus Shale. Observers say whether that will happen is uncertain while pressure intended to shape the outcome is coming from all sides, including the energy industry.