Likelihood

July natural gas futures posted a healthy gain Wednesday as traders acknowledged the likelihood that in spite of bearish fundamentals the market has put in a bottom and also observed new buying. July futures rose 12.4 cents to $4.253, and August gained 11.2 cents to $4.424. July crude oil added 56 cents to $71.03/bbl.

September natural gas futures managed to stage a modest advance as traders cited technical studies showing the likelihood of a near-term advance, and traders sensed a market well bid at lower levels. September natural gas rose 4.7 cents to $8.773 and October futures added 3.5 cents to $8.855. September crude oil slipped 59 cents to $118.58/bbl.

The likelihood that Mexico will open its oil and natural gas sector to more outside investment appeared slim to none Monday after some of the country’s lawmakers reportedly barricaded the podium in the lower house of Congress to protest the reform proposals.

A continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into the summer and fall and the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the current La Nina event will bring an active 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, WSI Corp. forecasters said Wednesday.

A continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into the summer and fall and the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the current La Nina event will bring an active 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, WSI Corp. forecasters said Wednesday.

Pat Pope, a top official with Southern Natural Gas Co., on Tuesday said there is a strong likelihood that the U.S. is going to see far fewer liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals built “than are being projected even today.” He doesn’t see any terminals being built on either the East or West coasts within the U.S. and is “quite pessimistic” about the chances of a terminal being constructed in the Bahamas.

There are growing market concerns about widening and volatile Midcontinent basis and the likelihood that it will get worse as more gas flows East from the Rockies. The situation was largely created by unexpected production growth (or absence of declines) in Midcontinent producing basins and pipeline constraints downstream of the new Cheyenne Plains pipeline system, according to data from Denver-based consulting firm Bentek Energy. Other events on the horizon could make it even worse.

Although trends toward milder weather would be minuscule over the weekend, traders used the likelihood that they would become more pronounced in the coming week to push cash prices lower at nearly all points Friday. As usual, the typical weekend drop in industrial load was a minor factor in the softness.

FERC “in all likelihood” will hold a technical conference to discuss the results of the surveys on the price-reporting activity of energy companies and the Commission’s interpretation of the results, as well as ask industry to identify the next liquidity issue that the agency should address, said the head of FERC’s Office of Market Oversight and Investigations (OMOI) last Wednesday.