Lifts

With most of the remaining very cold weather staying confined to the Rockies, Upper Plains and western Midwest, a significant rally in prices did not seem to be in the cards. But numbers rose at all points Tuesday between about 15 cents and 30 cents, with a large majority of gains being in the 20s.

For the third time in the last four Thursdays, the natural gas futures market rallied higher following the release of surprisingly bullish storage news (164 Bcf withdrawal). And while bears are not ready to throw in the towel just yet, analysts and market-watchers agree that it is becoming easier to make the case that prices could move higher from current levels.

Anticipated weekend blasts of cold (including the potential for frozen precipitation in parts of Louisiana and Texas) and the after-effects of a bullish storage report had more price-boosting impact Friday than many had expected.

With few bastions of relatively mild temperatures left outside the Florida peninsula, South Texas and the southern reaches of Arizona and California, all points were united Tuesday in realizing moderate to large price gains. Transco Zone 6-New York City notched a new weekly peak of $19 in leading most Northeast citygates in triple-digit spikes as the region hunkered down for yet another nor’easter barrage.

Mired in a sea of bearish news, natural gas futures traders glommed on to the only available bullish factor Wednesday and rode a buying wave created by an early spike in the nearby crude oil market. The October natural gas contract notched a new $4.66 high for the week by 11 a.m. EDT. Modest position squaring was seen in the afternoon, which allowed prices to ease back to finish the session at $4.588, a 7.7-cent advance on the day.

Adding to Tuesday’s modest price advance, natural gas futures surged higher Wednesday as early morning commercial buying triggered local short-covering at midday. Buying was almost uniform across the 12-month strip, suggesting hedging activity by end-users who may have missed their opportunity the last time prices were near $5.25. June futures closed at $5.385, up 14.9 cents for the session. The 12-month strip, meanwhile, outperformed the prompt month, advancing 15.1 cents to $5.446.

Based on the successful completion of two revolving bank loans and a third bank loan for its communications operating lease, the credit ratings of Dynegy Inc. and its subsidiaries were removed from CreditWatch by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P) on Wednesday.

Since becoming the prompt contract a month ago the February natural gas futures contract has exhibited a strong tendency to rebound following each and every price dip. That was again perfectly demonstrated Tuesday on the month’s penultimate trading day as market-on-close buying lifted the contract off its late afternoon low at $5.33. February closed at $5.444, up 4.8 cents for the session and 11.4 cents off its low notched just 15 minutes earlier.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services upgraded its opinion on Dynegy Inc. last week, and investors responded, after the company offered an upbeat, investor-inspiring earnings forecast on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations.