Anticipated weekend blasts of cold (including the potential for frozen precipitation in parts of Louisiana and Texas) and the after-effects of a bullish storage report had more price-boosting impact Friday than many had expected.

All markets rose by varying amounts ranging from less than 15 cents in the Southwest basins to nearly $2 at some Northeast points. Non-Northeast points mostly saw gains of 20-35 cents.

It was interesting that Friday’s surge brought quite a few points, particularly in the Texas, Midcontinent and Rockies production areas, close to their first-of-month index levels again. But quotes for Louisiana, Appalachia and Midwest citygates remained 10-45 cents or so shy of index, and even with their spikes Friday, Northeast citygates were still $1.50 to more than $3 below index.

There was virtually unanimous agreement that the market is likely to be softening again Tuesday when traders return to their offices following the Presidents Day holiday (and the Alberta-only provincial Family Day observance). The arctic fronts poised to blow into the Midwest and Northeast from Canada, along with a weakening Pacific front destined for the Pacific Northwest, were expected to be short-term affairs lasting no longer than a couple of days, sources said.

Only a day after barely clearing $6 at the high ends of their trading ranges, a couple of Northeast citygates were topping off at $8.40-50 Friday. The highest quotes likely reflected premiums for split-day deals, said one trader in the region. “Almost nobody wanted Saturday or Tuesday gas, but there was lots of demand for Sunday and Monday flows” when the coldest period of the long weekend was predicted, he said. Those who wanted to break up the typical four-day packages had to pay extra for that privilege, he said, adding, “I would expect us to be getting back down to $5-6 numbers Tuesday.”

Even with Friday’s big advances in the Northeast, it was still disappointing to those who expected even bigger increases based on more severe forecasts earlier in the week, the trader continued. Forecasts had changed from Thursday to indicate that the new cold front wouldn’t last very long and that it would be 5-6 degrees warmer Sunday and Monday than previously expected, he said. “Just that amount [5-6 degrees] can make a big difference in marginal gas costs,” the trader explained; otherwise he would have had no argument with those who thought weekend numbers might approach $20.

A Florida utility buyer mentioned premium pricing for a different reason. “We had a plant go down unexpectedly” and had to pay extra in a post-deadline intraday deal to fire up a replacement gas-fueled unit, she said. The late purchase from Florida Gas Transmission’s Zone 3 was about 30 cents above regular-session quotes. The pipeline’s warning of a potential Overage Alert Day notice due to colder weather moving into Florida probably gave a little extra psychological boost to FGT prices, the buyer said.

A Calgary-based producer commented that the cash market was more illiquid than usual Friday because of the haste by many traders to finish early and leave for the holiday weekend. Price hikes also were enhanced by the previous day’s screen strength, he said. It was about 4-5 degrees C. (40 F.) Friday afternoon in Calgary, making it a relatively “gorgeous” late-winter day for residents, the producer added.

Another Canadian source said prices were up sharply because of colder than expected weather, “but it won’t last long,” so expect softening Tuesday. Until Friday it was one of the quietest market weeks in memory, he said.

It’s gotten into a kind of “now you see it, now you don’t” situation, said a Midwestern utility buyer referring to the recent spate of OFO-like restrictions lasting only a day or two before being canceled by Northern Natural Gas. “Right now we’re seeing it,” he said after the pipeline announced a new System Overrun Limitation notice for Saturday (see Transportation Notes). That helped push demarc and Ventura quotes into the high $5.40s.

Calling EIA’s report of a 224 Bcf storage withdrawal during the previous week “quite shocking,” Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper added, “It remains to be seen whether this was a one-time occurrence or a more bullish trend of higher baseload demand. We remain on the sidelines.” Later Friday, Cooper’s initial estimation of the upcoming report called for a build in the 150-160 Bcf range, which would compare with 203 Bcf a year ago and a five-year average of 114 Bcf.

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