Influences

Prices at most points increased yesterday as influences fromstorage plays and a rising futures screen overcame a lack ofseasonal cold weather in major market areas. In general, upticks ofa few cents were the most common in the West, Rockies, Gulf Coastand Midcontinent. The Northeast, however, continued the fall itstarted on Monday, as many points in the region lost anywhere fromabout a nickel to more than a dime.

After much talk earlier in the week about how weak the cashmarket looks, it must have surprised some traders Wednesday to seeall but a few scattered points range from flat to as much as anickel higher. Between a neutral screen and no change infundamental factors, sources had trouble explaining why Tuesday’sprice skid came to such a quick halt only a day later. A marketersaid he wanted to suggest the “bears” had gone into hibernation,but it was too long before winter begins for that.

Finding little if anything impressive in the way of newinfluences, cash prices in general decided to take it easy Monday.Other than some sizeable western increases, which consisted mainlyof regaining price territory lost on Friday, most quotes were flatto slightly higher. A moderately softer screen combined with hotweather and no sign of an Atlantic tropical storm gave the marketlittle guidance, a Midcontinent trader said. Storage activityseemed little changed from last week, he said.

Slowly but surely the faux summer that much of the eastern U.S.has experienced recently is turning into “real summer,” a marketernoted. But even that and a moderate gain by the August Henry Hubfutures contract were not enough to avert softening at most cashtrading points Thursday. Eastern declines tended to be minuscule,with a few points staying flat and few others falling by more than1-2 cents. But an easing of Southwest supply constraints andgenerally cooler weather in the West caused larger price drops inthe West, topped by a loss of several cents in the San Juan Basin.

The overall market continued to consolidate mostly flatpositions Tuesday in another session of quiet trading and fairlytight price ranges. The little bit of movement tended to beslightly to the downside. Once again traders gleaned little in theway of guidance from a stagnant futures screen or from mild weatherfundamentals. A couple of sources seemed resigned to finishing outthe rest of the week in a sideways market.

With conflicting influences in several directions, much of thecash market decided to take a break Thursday and not wander veryfar from Wednesday’s levels. Small gains at most points outweigheda few scattered decreases. Modest strength in the Henry Hub gasfutures contract was countered by crude oil futures falling harderthan it had risen Wednesday, even as the U.S.-led air strikescontinued against Iraq Thursday. And forecasts for widespreadbelow-normal temperatures during Christmas week apparently meantless to gas traders than the current still-relatively-mildconditions.