With conflicting influences in several directions, much of thecash market decided to take a break Thursday and not wander veryfar from Wednesday’s levels. Small gains at most points outweigheda few scattered decreases. Modest strength in the Henry Hub gasfutures contract was countered by crude oil futures falling harderthan it had risen Wednesday, even as the U.S.-led air strikescontinued against Iraq Thursday. And forecasts for widespreadbelow-normal temperatures during Christmas week apparently meantless to gas traders than the current still-relatively-mildconditions.

Sumas remained the week’s volatility champ as quotes theregained most of the 37 cents they had fallen Wednesday. This timeSumas trading got support from south of the border instead of fromthe Canadian side. A weekend systemwide entitlement againstovertakes on Northwest Pipeline (see Transportation Notes) helpedpush Sumas as high as $3 as some traders stocked up in advance.Just as great a strengthening factor, contended one marketer, wasvery cold weather moving into the upper West Coast. BC Gas insouthern British Columbia and the LDCs of the Pacific Northwest aredrawing heavily on supplies, he said.

Sumas-related points such as Stanfield and Malin were seeingrelatively strong rises of 7-9 cents.

A Gulf Coast producer perceived the cash market as “pretty wildfor a while. It got up there and started tapping on index doorsagain” before falling back. He reported seeing some Henry Hub gastrying to reach $2.10 before dropping hard to settle around the low$1.90s. The storage report may have played a partial role inThursday’s mild increases, the producer said, “at least by notbeing an injection. I’m happy that it [storage] is finally goingthe right way [withdrawals], especially going into bidweek.”

Daily GPI sources are divided on whether much bidweek businesswill get done before Christmas or not. Calling next month “dead”for now, a Midcontinent-oriented marketer said there’s too muchpotential risk over a 3.5-day holiday weekend (Canadians also willtake Monday off because Boxing Day falls on Saturday this year,according to a Calgary trader) to do much January dealing early.Also, doing business next Tuesday or Wednesday involves added riskbecause it will precede the AGA storage report, which sometimes cancause a price move, the marketer said.

But another source said a number of industrial customers havealready indicated they want to finish by Christmas Eve so they cantake the following week off. However, he thought most pre-Christmastrading was likely to involve basis or indexed deals rather thanfixed prices. And a Southwest trader, saying he was already hearingfixed-price bids of $2.15-23 at the Southern California border,expects “a fair amount will get done before Christmas.”

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