Frigid

Backed by early cash market strength ahead of what is expected to be a fairly frigid weekend, November natural gas futures thrusted higher in Friday trading Pushing higher for much of the day the prompt-month contract put in a high of $4.880 in the afternoon before closing out the regular session at $4.781, up 29.9 cents from Thursday’s finish but only 1.1 cents above the previous Friday’s close.

Despite frigid weather remaining in several areas Friday, some isolated warming trends helped push cash prices lower at most points Thursday. The small decline by expiring February futures a day earlier and the fact that a weekend day was involved in Thursday’s deals were other bearish influences.

Apparently convinced that the current frigid temperatures will be short-lived, natural gas bears came out in force Tuesday to record a new front-month natural gas futures low for the current down move. February futures penetrated the old prompt-month low of $5.210 recorded on Dec. 22 to put in a $5.158 tick before closing out Tuesday’s regular session at $5.184, down an astounding 35.8 cents from Monday’s close.

Forecasts of a Midwest plunge into frigid conditions again after a brief warming trend, along with colder temperatures forecast for the eastern South, kept the cash price rally that had begun Monday going at a large majority of points. Monday’s gain of 10.1 cents by February futures also contributed to the overall firmness of the physical market.

In spite of forecasts of frigid New Year’s Eve weather from the Northeast through the Midwest and into the Upper Plains, with even the South due to experience some sub-freezing lows, prices dropped at a large majority of points Tuesday. The overall softness even defied significant prior-day screen support from Monday’s 31-cent spike by expiring January futures.

The frigid conditions predicted to be occupying the Midwest, Northeast and to some extent the South Friday finally got the upper hand over prior-day futures weakness and produced gains at most points Thursday. Except for large increases at Northeast citygates, most of the cash market advance was rather timid.

Most points continued to rise Tuesday as frigid weather extended its reach into some areas, although moderation was forecast in some parts of the South for Wednesday. An across the board run of firmness was averted by flat to about 15 cents lower numbers in several scattered instances.

Beginning another transition into the on-again, off-again periods of frigid conditions that have dominated February’s weather pattern, cash prices saw strong double-digit gains at all points Monday. The previous Friday’s 25.5-cent advance by March futures also was supportive, and the return of industrial load from weekend hiatus gave a little extra boost to the physical market.

Retreats by three New England citygates were the only exceptions to advancing spot prices Friday. The continuation of frigid weather into the weekend in several market areas or the impending return of it after a brief period of moderation, along with the spike of nearly 40 cents by March futures the day before, were chiefly responsible for the cash market strength.