Most points continued to rise Tuesday as frigid weather extended its reach into some areas, although moderation was forecast in some parts of the South for Wednesday. An across the board run of firmness was averted by flat to about 15 cents lower numbers in several scattered instances.

The overall gains ranged from a couple of pennies to nearly 35 cents. The Rockies tended to have the greatest concentration of the largest advances, followed closely by the Midcontinent.

The cash market is deriving most of its support from the move back to colder temperatures in some sections of the country, abetted by a bit of psychological bullishness from the shift in recent weeks from complacency about abundant storage to minor concerns that a cold March might put a little strain on withdrawal season-ending inventories. April futures remained relatively inconsequential to cash traders in rising less than a penny Tuesday (see related story).

The Midwest, already recording sub-freezing lows in the 20s, will see little change in temperature levels Wednesday. The Northeast will see temperatures going down as freezing rain and sleet continue to plague northern New York state and northern New England; Boston and New York City will see lows sink from 35 and 46, respectively, Tuesday to around 28 and 32 Wednesday.

Temperatures will be almost unchanged in the eastern end of the South Wednesday, but will be rising in the region’s western sections.

Conditions also will see relatively little change in much of the West, although the Rockies will be trending slightly colder. Prices were flat at all three Pacific Northwest points (Sumas, Kingsgate and Stanfield) as that region will enjoy fairly moderate weather Wednesday.

San Juan Basin quotes gained a bit of support from a Declared Deficiency Period on southbound flows through Northwest’s Cisco Compressor Station (see Transportation Notes), which required San Juan gas to pick up the slack on flows to the south end of Northwest. El Paso-San Juan prices were up a little more than 30 cents.

Prices moved up a little bit as trading went on, “maybe a nickel or a dime,” said a Lower Midwest marketer. Generally that’s a somewhat reliable indicator of the next day’s market direction, he added, but it’s less certain when the current day’s movement is modest.

There’s some cold weather around, the marketer noted, but it’s not as severe as the cold periods in preceding weeks. That was reflected by almost no significant weather-related pipeline constraints in the East, he said; MRT’s System Protection Warning was about the only one that came to mind, and it’s a pretty mild restriction. It looks like normal conditions that should arrive in the Midcontinent/Midwest during the weekend might stick around for a while this time, he said.

It might have been the geographic variation, but a marketer in the Upper Midwest had a different perception. Forecasts indicate that it will be staying cold in her area through mid-March at least, she said. She noted that ,any prefer to have snow in the forecast rather than sleet and/or freezing rain; driving isn’t as dangerous on snow and snow provides some degree of insulation, she said.

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) six- to 10-day forecast for the March 10-14 workweek anticipates only a small area of below-normal temperatures: New England (except for the southwest corner of Connecticut) and the northern half of New York state.

Strategic Energy & Economic Research analyst Ron Denhardt looks for a storage withdrawal of 148 Bcf to be reported for the week ending Feb. 29. The First Enercast Financial prediction is for a 154 Bcf pull. Citigroup’s Tim Evans expects gradually shrinking reports over the next three weeks, saying he projects draws of 130 Bcf, 85 Bcf and 70 Bcf for the weeks ending Feb. 29, March 7 and March 14, respectively.

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