A modest majority of points recorded price increases in triple digits Monday as frigid weather continued spreading into Canada and most of the northern half of the U.S. All of the cash market racked up big gains, getting extra support from the 39.7-cent pre-Thanksgiving spike by January futures.

Upticks were spread fairly evenly among geographic market areas in ranging from about 55 cents to about $1.40. Nearly all points were up by at least 80 cents or so.

IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) reported a couple of outlying aberrations of about 45 cents higher at the Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and a tremendous jump of $2.11 by Rockies Express (REX) at its REX-West delivery point into Panhandle Eastern. However, they were on relatively light volumes of 35,200 MMBtu and 5,000 MMBtu, respectively, ICE said.

A few Northeast citygates were averaging slightly above $5 for the first time in weeks, but the PG&E citygate still handily exceeded them for the market’s top average.

After having a very generous amount of prior-trading-day screen support Monday, the cash market will be heavily influenced in the negative direction Tuesday after January futures gave back nearly all of Wednesday’s spike in falling 34.4 cents (see related story).

Florida and parts of the desert Southwest looked to remain relatively unscathed from the widespread cold snap through at least Tuesday. Most other areas are seeing Tuesday forecasts for lows in the 30s, 20s and teens, with Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta due to slip to the 10-degree area, according to Madison, WI-based Weather Central.

Much of the South will be merely chilly for a while longer, but it will see temperatures sinking lower later in the week upon the arrival of a cold front advancing eastward through Texas that is expected to take Houston-area lows into the mid 30s Wednesday through Friday.

In addition to getting colder, the South will continue to get wetter, according to The Weather Channel (TWC). A low-pressure will form in the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, TWC predicted, and will bring moderate to heavy rain along the western and central Gulf Coast through Tuesday night as it moves northeast out of the Gulf toward the central Appalachian Mountains Wednesday.

The National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day forecast posted Sunday indicated that except for most of the five Southwest states and peninsular Florida, below-normal temperatures will remain throughout the rest of the U.S. through the coming weekend.

The Northern Natural Gas bulletin board signaled the big freeze that is approaching in the Upper Midwest. The pipeline’s normal system-weighted temperature is 26 degrees at this time of year, a Monday posting said. It projected above-normal averages of 36 for both Monday and Tuesday but then temperatures getting more like normal with readings of 25 Wednesday and 24 Thursday.

Texas Eastern, Algonquin and MRT have ended or are about to end restrictions that were implemented last Thursday to prevent excess linepack buildup during an expected low-demand holiday weekend (see Transportation Notes).

The restoration of 765 MMcf/d of storage injection capacity by SoCalGas and PG&E ending a high-inventory OFO Monday (see Transportation Notes) lent added support to western markets. Of course, Rockies lows in the teens and 20s weren’t exactly bearish either.

Cash quotes fell in late trading Monday and gas futures were much weaker — exactly the opposite trends from last Wednesday, a Midcontinent producer noted. For that reason he didn’t think the spread of cold weather would be able to spur enough demand to keep the cash market from going into reverse Tuesday.

The cold that the market is expected to get during December “may be too little, too late” after a relatively mild November, the producer continued. If spot prices go much higher again, buyers will prefer to tap their storage accounts instead, “and we all know there is a lot of storage” to burn through this winter, he said.

The producer said it’s gotten cheaper — at least in Oklahoma — to buy power from others than burn gas to produce it. He reported being told by generators in the state that the going rate is currently about $22/MW in Oklahoma, which he said is equivalent to $2.20 or so per Mcf of gas. Prices into OGT and other Midcontinent pipes were averaging nearly twice that Monday.

One of the quietest (at least for offshore production interests) Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent years officially ended Monday with, as usual, no tropical activity of any significance.

After falling by two in the previous week, the number of drilling rigs engaged in the U.S. gas search soared by 22 to 748 during the week ending Nov. 25, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (note that due to the holiday, the count only goes through Wednesday instead of Friday as usual). The onshore tally rose by 26, Baker Hughes said, while four rigs were deactivated in the Gulf of Mexico. Its latest tally is up 3% from a month earlier but 48% less than the year-ago level.

©Copyright 2009Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.