Forecast

Those counting on an LNG bail-out to moderate natural gas prices along about 2007-2008 might have to wait a little longer, according to a report just published by Schroders plc, a global asset management company, whose latest report on North American natural gas markets sees prices remaining at high levels beyond the end of the decade.

Diversified energy holding company Energen Corp. added to its 2006 natural gas hedge position and as a result, raised its earnings forecast for next year by 10 cents to a range of between $3.05-3.35/share. Prior guidance, issued Aug. 1, was $2.95-3.25.

Royal Dutch/Shell Group’s share price tumbled Friday after announcing it would recategorize nearly 20% of its proved hydrocarbon reserves — about 3.9 billion boe. More than 90% of the total comes from a reduction in proved undeveloped reserves; the remainder in proved developed. The changes would trim proved reserves to 15.6 billion boe from the 19.5 billion boe.

In a new long-range forecast, Puget Sound Energy (PSE) estimates that it will need an additional 2,000 MW of power generation by 2025 due to population and business growth in its service territory as well as expiring purchased-power contracts with other Northwest utilities and power producers.

XTO Energy Inc., which focuses its exploration efforts in the Midcontinent, on Wednesday raised its annual production outlook to 24-26% — 2% more than it forecast just two weeks ago (see Daily GPI, April 4), after reporting record natural gas and oil output for the first quarter along with record earnings.

The cash market relied on new cold fronts forecast for Tuesday in the Northeast and South, along with predictions of temperatures well below early-March norms in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes sections of the Midwest, to push prices higher at nearly all points Monday. Delayed support from Friday’s futures gain of nearly 9 cents and the restoration of industrial load from its usual weekend slump aided the climb.

CenterPoint issued a System-Wide Alert Wednesday, citing a forecast for colder than normal conditions moving into its service area. Due to the need to maintain adequate linepack and preserve storage flexibility to meet FT obligations, CenterPoint is requiring customers, “particularly power plants or other large industrial loads whose swings can cause operational difficulties” for the pipeline’s system “or discrete segments thereof,” to take deliveries as evenly as possible throughout the day. In no case should takes exceed a shipper’s hourly entitlements by more than 10% in any hour; excessive hourly takes could result in a customer-specific OFO being issued, the pipeline said.

While using 2003 forecast data for the most part, the California Energy Commission (CEC) recently released its latest natural gas assessment, reiterating concerns and observations from last year — mainly about continued historic high wholesale prices and the need for some combination of demand-response and new supply imports to meet future demand.

While using 2003 forecast data for the most part, the California Energy Commission (CEC) last Friday released its latest natural gas assessment, reiterating concerns and observations from last year — namely, concerns about continued historic high wholesale prices and the need for some combination of demand-response and new supply imports to meet future demand.