Cool

After extending to new 18-month highs on forecasts calling for cool weather through the rest of the month, natural gas futures reversed lower yesterday amid weakness in the nearby crude oil pit. For the gas market, the selling came in two distinct surges — one in the late morning hours and the other near the 2:30 p.m. EDT closing bell. The November contract finished at $4.157, down 8.2 cents for the session and a whopping 26.3 cents off its new high.

Following an impressive eight-day, 60-cent rally, natural gas prices dipped Tuesday as traders grappled with the first bearish weather forecast in more than a month. The September contract closed at $3.166, down 10.1 cents on the day and just 0.6 cents above its low for the session. Estimated volume was heavy, with 109,501 contracts changing hands.

Rising oil prices, a relatively cooler March and April, an improving economic picture and a production decrease all contributed to higher than expected natural gas prices over the past few months, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released last Monday.

Last winter appears to have shaken the meteorological community, most of which — Davis included — predicted a colder than normal winter. It turned out to be the fifth warmest on record. Davis said he’s still trying to determine the causes of the very unusual winter temperatures.

A slightly more positive set of weather fundamentals kept flat numbers dominant in weekend trading Friday. There was a slight bias toward the downside, but few points fell by more than 1-2 cents.

Northwest Pipeline urged shippers to refrain from drafting anywhere on its system. Cool temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls and excessive drafting has reduced linepack throughout the system, the pipeline said. All balancing must receive prior authorization from Williams Gas Pipeline-West.

Prices fell Thursday in the wake of a large storage injection report and a continuing dearth of air conditioning load. Volumes and trading activity remained minimal in the absence of futures guidance, and sources reported that the feelings of grief and numbness from the attacks against New York City’s World Trade Center and the Pentagon were slow in dissipating.

Unable to resist the weakness of weather fundamentals any longer, combined with facing the usual demand dropoff over a weekend, swing prices registered double-digit losses at nearly all points Friday. An Overnominations Day declaration for Saturday by Southern California Gas caused the biggest drop of about half a dollar at border-SoCal Gas.

Conservation, cool temperatures and more long term contracts have pressured power prices lower in California to the point where generators “are having to compete for first time in months to sell us energy,” Ray Hart, deputy director of the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) said Thursday.