Last winter appears to have shaken the meteorological community, most of which — Davis included — predicted a colder than normal winter. It turned out to be the fifth warmest on record. Davis said he’s still trying to determine the causes of the very unusual winter temperatures.

The forces that will lead to a normal or cooler than normal summer are somewhat offset by historical statistical factors for summers following warm winters, said Davis. Nevertheless, he believes certain fundamentals stand out and support his forecast. Warmer than normal summers typically follow warmer than normal winters, and we just had a whopper. But El Ninos (warming equatorial Pacific waters), such as the one forming currently, typically produce a cooler summer, particularly when there’s a negative or cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which has been present for the past few years, he said. The other factor is soil moisture, and Davis said moisture can have different effects depending on the region, but in general, dry conditions typically produce higher temperatures.

The bottom line is that there “will likely be small-scale regional areas that see heat,” said Davis. “But we feel that from a large-scale national standpoint, the United States will have a summer with a general lack of heat. In other words, more areas will experience near normal or below normal temperatures than will experience extreme heat during the season.”

One area that should be watched is the Northeast, where a near-record drought has significantly reduced hydroelectric supplies. New York, in particular, which relies on hydro for 18% of its power supplies, could suffer power shortages this summer, Davis predicted.

“With hydroelectric generation levels currently very low, more natural gas will likely be used by utilities in this region during the cooling season,” he said. “Moreover, a hot summer could lead to the possibility of rolling blackouts or brownouts.” However, he said cooling degree days (CDDs) should be below normal in the Northeast, which may provide some relief.

“The odds strongly favor below-average CDD totals this season in Chicago and the Midcontinent region,” he said. “Elsewhere, cities such as New York and Atlanta also exhibit a bias toward below-normal CDD totals. The bias in these two cities, however, is not as strong as in Chicago…

“On a regional level, the one area of the U.S. favored for higher cooling demand this summer is the Southwest, especially Phoenix. The area of the country most likely to experience below normal cooling demand is the Midcontinent (Midwest/Great Lakes) region.” Davis added that if Chicago and New York do have a stretch of hot weather, it’s likely to occur in May and June rather than in July or August.

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