Bulls

The second time was a charm for bears at Nymex yesterday whenthey succeeded in taking natural gas below key support afterfailing to do so earlier in the session. Sources pointed totechnical selling that entered the fray when the May contract wasunable to climb back to Monday’s $2.945 high as a major contributorto yesterday’s losses. However, declines were not limited to theprompt month as moderate losses pervaded the entire 12-month strip.The May and June each finished down 6.7 cents at $2.822 and $2.844respectively.

Gas price bulls can sit pretty this summer as industry analystsagree that the stage is set for strong demand, stressed supply andhigher prices in both the futures and cash markets.

Bulls never had a chance yesterday when natural gas futures werehit with two distinct waves of selling pressure as traders unloadedlong positions. Sources said early options-related liquidation wasreplaced by storage and market-on-close selling in the afternoon,and that was enough to delivered the expiring April contract 6.3cents lower to its final resting place at $2.90. The prompt monthin waiting, May, followed suit by also slipping 6.3 cents to closeat $2.908.

Led by local buying, the natural gas futures market made twodistinctive thrusts higher Friday, as traders set their sights onresistance at $2.90. However it was not to be and after the secondsurge was thwarted shortly after noon (CST), the market tumbledlower amid light profit taking and position squaring. Oddly, theprompt month April suffered the smallest declines of any contract,slipping 1.1 cents to finish the week at $2.836. By comparison, theMay contract slipped 1.4 cents lower and the 12-month strip gaveback 1.5 cents. Estimated volume was moderate, with 69,063contracts changing hands.

After watching the market tumble 7.1 cents lower Monday, naturalgas bulls at the New York Mercantile exchange dug in their heelsyesterday as prices careened off support in the low $2.70s andmoved higher throughout the session. By virtue of its 3.7-centadvance and $2.751 settlement, the April contract nudged its wayback up well within the $2.67-90 trading range that has limitedprice movement since March 1. The May contract followed suit,trading up 3.7 cents to finish at $2.781, in a session that sawmoderate activity of 57,862.

In response to pressure from the market and Nymex, the AmericanGas Association last month announced that it would move forward therelease of its weekly gas storage data. Some traders and analystspredicted the change would increase liquidity, but most observersbelieved it would have little or no impact on the market. In fact,some market watchers even said the early release would decreasevolatility because of the natural efficiencies inherit in Nymex’sopen outcry trading system.

For the second trading session in a row Monday the Aprilcontract opened at 2.81, but in contrast to the price fallexperienced last Friday, prices spiked higher at the open yesterdayand quickly tested life-of-contract highs. However, severalattempts to punch through the $2.88 level failed and that left themarket with an 8.6 cent advance and a $2.86 closing price.

Fueled by a steady flow of short covering, natural gas futureserupted higher late yesterday morning as traders looked pastbearish storage data and focused on constructive short-term weatherand technicals. After testing support in the $2.65-67 area around10 a.m. (CST), the April contract rallied throughout the rest ofthe session to finish up 7.6 cents at $2.786.

Rebounding from Thursday’s heavily predicted, albeit modestsell-off, natural gas futures turned higher Friday as tradersjumped at the opportunity to increase their length while the marketwas trading off fresh highs. After opening lower and quicklymatching Thursday’s $2.75 low, the April contract rumbled 4.2 centshigher to close at $2.825, just below its $2.83 high for the dayand only pennies less than the $2.865 life-of-contract high put inThursday. Estimated volume was solid, with 53,424 contractschanging hands.