Bulls

Cash prices continued to act like rampaging bulls as Octoberbegan Thursday. Double-digit increases of between 10 and 20 centswere the order of the day almost across the board as traders notedchilly weather in major northern market areas and the fact thatGulf of Mexico production, while nearly back to normal afterhurricane outages, still was missing a few hundred MMcf/d. At leasttwo big processing plants in southeast Louisiana remained shut downdue to storm damage. Cash also built on Wednesday’s big screenrun-up and initially higher futures prices Thursday. Even theNovember contract eventually wound up with a small loss, a traderpointed out.

“Fundamentals are bearish, technicals are bullish, and today[Tuesday] the bulls beat the [socks off] of the bears.” Rather thandescribing a pro sports encounter between two Chicago teams, aHouston-based aggregator was summing up his view of the physicaland futures gas markets. Led by a soaring screen that dazzledobservers with its pyrotechnics (“this is crazy,” exclaimed onemarketer), cash prices were rising by a dime or more at nearly allpoints in the face of continuing widespread mild temperatures.

The futures market again came under heavy selling pressure onWednesday as new bearish technical factors added to the alreadynegative fundamental outlook. The September contract never had achance, managing to post a high yesterday that matched Tuesday’slow, while slipping 6.6 cents to settle at $1.762. Estimated volumesubstantiated the price move, with a whopping 93,150 contractschanging hands.

Friday was a day of tests at the New York Mercantile Exchange.The market pushed lower on the open to test support at $1.81 onlyto rebound in the hopes of knocking out resistance at $1.875.However, both attempts failed and the September contract was leftto close at $1.833, almost unchanged for the day.

The futures market made gains for the second day in a rowTuesday on what many sources are calling a bit of a technicalcorrection in an otherwise down market. That left the Septembercontract hovering within striking distance of the downtrend linethat has thwarted upward momentum since July 9. September finishedup 2.6 cents to settle at 1.895.

As if taking a cue from the professional basketball team inChicago, the bulls of natural gas were on top again last week atNymex. A short-covering rally that began Wednesday resumed Fridaysending the July contract to $2.284, a 14-cent increase for theday. Estimated volume was a robust 99,631.

The July futures contract was nudged lower again yesterday butnot before bulls attempted to push the market higher early in thetrading session. July reached a high of $2.03 just before 1:00 P.M.EST. only to be beaten back to settle at $1.938, down 3.8 cents forthe day. By dipping into the low $1.90s the spot contract traded atits lowest point since April 1997.

The May Nymex contract continued its spirited dive into lowerterritory Thursday by falling another 7.0 cents to settle at$3.328. May has now lost nearly a quarter since Tuesday, andestimated volume has totaled more than 250,000 contracts over thelast two days. “The amount of trading volume has been incredible.Of course, open interest had been at an all time high, so theseheavier trading days should be expected. Much of this is the workof speculative funds who continue to take profits and exit theiropen positions ahead of May’s expiration next Tuesday,” a sourcetold GPI.

Brokers and speculators (at least some, anyway) may havebreathed a collective sigh of relief on Wednesday, as volatilityreturned to the New York Mercantile Exchange. The April contractfinally broke out of the tight $2.105-205 trading range that hadbeen containing its movements since March 6 by virtue of its 8.4cent rise to $2.239. Sources agreed the activity was led byanticipatory buying ahead of the release of the latest AGA storagereport. “It was more buy based on rumor today, but the rumor wasstrong enough to drive April above major resistance at $2.205,” oneof the sources told NGI.