Bias

August natural gas fell in light, pre-holiday trading as traders still maintained an upward bias but noted that healthy production levels still remain a formidable force for the bulls to counter. At the close August had fallen 6.3 cents to $4.311 and September had slipped 6.3 cents as well to $4.330. August crude oil softened 48 cents to $94.94/bbl.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), academia, industry and analysts on Tuesday continued to question why the New York Times (NYT) relied on misleading, outdated information — and failed to contact key resources — before publishing damning articles about the U.S. shale gas industry.

Price movement was mixed Thursday but displayed a distinct bias toward the upside. Significant heating load was scarce across much of the South, but increasing in the Northeast and West while mostly standing pat in the Midwest. The cash market also had support from a March futures contract that has been on the rise since the previous Thursday.

Triple-digit spikes at Northeast citygates stood out amid otherwise mixed pricing Friday that nevertheless had a major bias toward the upside. The extra Northeast strength was hardly surprising, since that region was destined to bear the brunt of a weekend return to widespread, very cold weather.

There was a moderate bias to the downside in mixed cash pricing Wednesday, but a record prompt-month daily futures settlement and the possibility of offshore shut-ins posed by newly minted Tropical Storm Katrina were expected to unite all points in major moves higher Thursday.

Prices strayed mostly short distances to either side of flat Thursday, with moderate gains tending to outweigh the losses despite sources contending that substantive heating load remains hard to find — for now. Most of the declines occurred in the West.

Prices strayed mostly short distances to either side of flat Thursday, with moderate gains tending to outweigh the losses despite sources contending that substantive heating load remains hard to find — for now. Most of the declines occurred in the West.

The cash market showed little apparent rhyme or reason Tuesday as September swing trading opened with a hodgepodge of mixed price movement that nevertheless favored the upside in a majority of cases. Prices may have found more weather-related load than expected, and the screen’s gain of nearly a nickel Monday may have played a part.

Prices were mixed on either side of flat Monday, but the market as a whole leaned decidedly to the downside. Not much appreciable heating load remained outside the Upper Plains and Rockies.