Belated

With its projected linepack threatening to sink well below minimum target levels, Pacific Gas & Electric made a belated declaration of a systemwide Stage 2 low-inventory OFO for Wednesday on its California Gas Transmission system and extended the OFO through at least Thursday. The penalty for exceeding a negative daily imbalance tolerance of 5% was set at $1/Dth on both days.

Traders had realized that a belated stretch of severe winter weather throughout much of North America was the only thing keeping spot prices firm since the end of January, so it was purely a matter of “when” a market retrenchment would begin. The “when” turned out to be Wednesday, as across the board declines were topped by plunges ranging up to slightly more than 70 cents (Algonquin citygate) in the previously high-flying Northeast.

Pressured by a triumvirate of bearish factors — weather,technicals and cash prices — natural gas futures plodded lower inan abbreviated, pre-holiday session Friday as weak longs continuedto shed their positions. However, instead of liquidating theirlongs entirely, traders elected to roll their prompt holdings intoout months. At the closing bell, the February contract was 23.6cents lower at $8.472 while the summer strip (Apr.-Oct.) was 6.7cents higher on the day at $6.085.

With a relative whimper, not a bang, a major rate case forPacific Gas and Electric Co. ended last Thursday with Californiaregulators on a 3-2 vote giving the utility about one-third what itoriginally requested. The raise still is quite large, however, at$229 million/annually, including a 6% hike in gas rates. The hikeamounts to about another $20/year for the typical residentialcustomer. Electric rates were hiked by $136 million/year, but therewill be no change in those rates because of the ongoing rate freezethat’s been in effect since 1996 as part of the state’s electricindustry restructuring.

FERC’s proposal to organize and monitor the short-term marketthrough daily auctions is either a belated and unnecessaryadministrative nightmare – or the road to vigorous competition inthe transportation market, i.e. the “commoditization” oftransportation.

Prices continued to rise Thursday in trading for both lateFebruary and March. It was mostly a response to the screen’sbelated run-up Wednesday, sources said, but there was enoughblizzard-like weather spreading out from the Upper Plains region togive prices a little extra boost.