Atmospheric

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week that the little devil El Nino is back, warming up the waters in the equatorial Pacific region and possibly setting the stage for a weaker hurricane season but also an increase in the number of storms next winter along the East Coast.

The recent forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of an El Nino event forming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has many energy market forecasters scrambling to size up the potential impact. But Weather Services International (WSI) said there is very little chance that El Nino will alter weather patterns this summer. The most likely scenario shows an impact late in the fall and in the winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week that the little devil El Nino is back, warming up the waters in the equatorial Pacific region and possibly setting the stage for a weaker hurricane season but also an increase in the number of storms next winter along the East Coast.

In contrast to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Salomon Smith Barney of a colder-than-normal winter in key eastern consuming regions, WSI Corp.’s end-of-October update to its seasonal forecast for November, December and January predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and in the central and southern Plains. WSI, however, said it expects cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf Coast states, Northern Plains, Great Lakes states, and all areas west of the Rocky Mountains.

In contrast to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Salomon Smith Barney of a colder-than-normal winter in key energy consuming regions, WSI Corp.’s end-of-October update to its seasonal forecast for November, December and January predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and in the central and southern Plains. WSI, however, said it expects cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf Coast states, Northern Plains, Great Lakes states, and all areas west of the Rocky Mountains.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in areport issued yesterday that the 2000 hurricane season could be awhopper with 11 or more tropical storms, of which seven or morecould become hurricanes, with three or more classified as major.”The greatest influences in this forecast continue to be theon-going La Nina and a lesser-known climate phenomenon of warmerthan normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures that affect hurricaneactivity over very long time scales,” said NOAA Administrator D.James Baker. “La Nina is defined by cooler-than-average sea-surfacetemperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Duringlast year’s hurricane season, La Nina was bold, and clearlydefined, and gave forecasters more certainty. This year, La Nina’send is in sight,” Baker said. “Even if La Nina fades by August (asthe current forecast suggests), La Nina’s remnants and otherinfluences will still likely bring more storms than usual,” headded.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in areport issued yesterday that the 2000 hurricane season could be awhopper with 11 or more tropical storms, of which seven or morecould become hurricanes, with three or more classified as major.”The greatest influences in this forecast continue to be theon-going La Nina and a lesser-known climate phenomenon of warmerthan normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures that affect hurricaneactivity over very long time scales,” said NOAA Administrator D.James Baker. “La Ni¤a is defined by cooler-than-average sea-surfacetemperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Duringlast year’s hurricane season, La Ni¤a was bold, and clearlydefined, and gave forecasters more certainty. This year, La Ni¤a’send is in sight,” Baker said. “Even if La Ni¤a fades by August (asthe current forecast suggests), La Ni¤a’s remnants and otherinfluences will still likely bring more storms than usual,” headded.