Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that a weak or moderate El Nino event (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) is likely to develop during the next six-to-nine months, but it should have much less impact than that of the strong 1997-98 El Nino. El Nino events typically hinder hurricane activity, according to NOAA.

“Some events develop quickly and others, like this one, have a more gradual evolution,” Brig. Gen. Jack Kelly, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said regarding the currently developing El Nino event. “We are maintaining a constant watch over the conditions of the atmosphere and ocean and will continue providing guidance on potential impacts.”

Warmer-than-normal sea surface and subsurface ocean temperatures were observed throughout most of the equatorial Pacific during April 2002. Sea surface temperature anomalies were up to 2°C warmer than average in the region between the Galapagos Islands and the South American coast, and greater than 1°C warmer than average immediately to the west of 180°W.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important source of variability that can contribute to a more rapid evolution toward El Nino through related fluctuations in low-level winds and precipitation over the western and central equatorial Pacific. An eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave, initiated by strong MJO activity in late 2001, resulted in the rapid warming that was observed along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru in early February. Since that time MJO activity has weakened and there has been no additional significant Kelvin wave activity. Without such activity a slow evolution towards El Nino conditions is possible through the remainder of 2002.

Typical El Nino impacts on the United States include:

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