The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week that the little devil El Nino is back, warming up the waters in the equatorial Pacific region and possibly setting the stage for a weaker hurricane season but also an increase in the number of storms next winter along the East Coast.

Typical El Nino impacts on the United States include:

Scientists at NOAA said that ocean surface temperatures warmed 2 degrees Celsius (4 F) in the eastern equatorial Pacific near the South American coast in February. The warming has been accompanied by an increase in rainfall over that region. The trend is an additional sign that the Pacific Ocean is heading toward an El Nino condition, said NOAA Administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher.

“It’s still too early to determine the potential strength of this El Nino or exactly what weather conditions it will bring to the United States, but it is likely these warming conditions in the tropical Pacific will continue until early 2003,” he said.

One significant impact on summer gas demand could come from El Nino’s effect on the Pacific Northwest. The Energy Information Administration is predicting that total hydro generation this year will rise by 28% compared to last year’s drought conditions if normal precipitation materializes. However, El Nino could dry up the region, reducing the amount of water available to generate hydropower and giving gas-fired generation a big boost in California once again.

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