Because of the rapid growth of gas-fired generation in New England, the New England Independent System Operator (ISO) should expect inadequate pipeline capacity to support winter power generation through 2005, according to Phase II of a study by Boston-based Levitan & Associates Inc. However, the study concludes there should be enough capacity in the pipeline grid to avoid any problems in the summer.

The most noteworthy change since the first phase of Levitan’s study was completed last year is the accelerated pace of gas-fired generation development in the region. Levitan said it expects 3,215 MW of new generation to be in place by the end of next year.

“Although the amount of natural gas-fired generation at risk in the winter of 2001-2002 is estimated to be only 1,352 MW, by next winter, generation at risk is estimated to increase to 3,101 MW on the peak day and perhaps as much as 3,960 MW,” Levitan said. These estimates reflect the total amount of megawatts at risk on five major pipelines in the region. On average during the coldest parts of the winter — mid-December through mid-February — generation at risk would be about 1,300 MW.

Multiple pipeline expansion projects are in the works. However, they won’t be enough to maintain deliveries to generators during peak winter gas demand mainly because generators have not signed contracts for firm transportation. As a result, they can expect to be interrupted during periods of high demand.

Levitan examined the impacts of several new pipeline projects, including Maritimes & Northeast’s compression expansion at the existing Baileyville and Richmond stations in Maine, Tennessee Gas Pipelines’ Dracut expansion, improvements on Tennessee’s Cranston lateral in Rhode Island, M&N’s Phase III project from Methuen to Beverly, MA, Algonquin’s HubLine project to Weymouth and Duke Energy’s Islander East Pipeline from southern Connecticut to Long Island.

“In general, the new pipeline facility improvements do not materially enhance the ability of New England’s merchant plants to receive gas because the majority of merchant generators have not contracted for long-haul, primary firm transportation rights. They therefore cannot be guaranteed firm deliveries…” Many, however, probably will benefit from additional gas flowing into the region from Atlantic Canada under secondary firm transportation arrangements, the study said.

Levitan recommends, the ISO formulate safeguards to ensure that gas-fired merchant generators are not the primary source of winter operating reserves during pipeline operational flow orders. It also recommends the ISO examine the feasibility of certifying plant back up fuel capabilities and closely monitor supply and deliverability of alternate fuel supplies.

For more details from the study titled “Steady-State and Transient Analysis of New England’s Interstate Pipeline Delivery Capability 2001-2005,” visit the ISO’s web site at https://www.iso-ne.com.

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