Encountering colder weather in key northern market areas than they had been led to expect a few days earlier, and also spurred by a screen advance of nearly 20 cents on Tuesday, cash traders pushed swing prices higher at all points Wednesday. Bidweek numbers also were reported to be on the rise.

Nearly all of Wednesday’s gains were larger than those of the day before but still remained fairly moderate at around 15 cents or less. However, the Northeast, where a snowstorm Thursday is expected to range from its lower edge in the Mid-Atlantic through the New York City metropolitan area and then to move into New England that night, saw considerably larger upticks than the general market. Four Northeast citygates recorded advances right around a dollar. Iroquois Zone 2 barely edged out Transco Zone 6-NYC for the day’s top quote.

Although increases at Midwest citygates were much more modest than those in their Northeast counterparts, conditions demonstrating that winter definitely has not left the building yet in that region helped boost production-area quotes. An Upper Midwest marketer reported that it has “snowed off and on most of yesterday” [Tuesday] in her city, and that it was sunny Wednesday but with sub-freezing temperatures. Snow flurries were possible Wednesday night, followed by more freezing conditions Thursday “and more snow Friday,” she said. At least a welcome warm-up is due over the weekend, she said, adding, “They [forecasters] did revise the temperature reports [for midweek] downward since late last week.”

Most of the South’s weather was still moderate through Wednesday afternoon, but a cold front moving southward was expected to take Thursday’s highs as low as the 30s in the northern North Carolina and Virginia area. Overall, though, the South is not expected to contribute greatly to new heating load. Unseasonably mild temperatures due Thursday in the Pacific Northwest counteracted predictions of below normal readings in the Southwest, resulting in western points cornering the market Wednesday on single-digit price increases.

A producer who trades the Northeast said regional temperatures were a little colder than he had been expecting last week, and it was due to get a few degrees colder Thursday than Wednesday. There was a small run-up in cash quotes near the end of trading Wednesday, he said, which he expected helped contribute to an eventual natural gas futures run-up to 20.8 cents after the screen had been in slightly negative territory in the early going.

He couldn’t speak for other market areas, but the producer said he thought Wednesday might have represented the peak in late-February swing prices for the Northeast. The region should start getting a little warmer Friday, he said.

March bidweek numbers “definitely were getting stronger” Wednesday, the producer continued. The late-February surge of colder weather, which is expected to continue into early March, and a second straight day of futures strength were cited as the chief factors. He reported these basis deals done over the past two days, with the higher basis quotes occurring Wednesday: Transco Zone 6-New York City at plus 65-78 cents, and Zone 6’s non-NYC pool at 53-68 cents.

The National Weather Service expects March to begin with below normal temperatures throughout the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Its forecast for the March 1-5 period calls for conditions to be below normal everywhere east of a line slicing vertically through the central Dakotas and then curving slightly southwestward through western Nebraska, central Colorado and western New Mexico. The only section where NWS foresees above normal readings is in the Pacific Northwest along with northwestern Nevada and Northern California.

Analyst Kyle Cooper of Citigroup said his final estimation for Thursday’s storage report calls for a withdrawal of 89-99 Bcf during the week ending Feb. 18. A Reuters news service survey found other expectations centering on a pull in the mid 90s Bcf.

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.