Forecasts of warmer weather returning in the Midwest, combined with the existing high heat levels from the south-central U.S. through interior California and the hint of a potential new tropical storm in the central Atlantic, were able to rally several points by small amounts Monday following the previous Friday’s across the board losses. The return of industrial load from its usual weekend drop provided modest extra bullish support.

However, the overall continuing lack of major summer cooling load in much of the U.S. and Canada, along with Friday’s 14.1-cent drop by September futures (which begin their three-day settlement period Tuesday), kept prices on a downhill path in a majority of the cash market Monday.

Some locations, primarily in the Northeast and Midcontinent, were flat to about a nickel higher. Most points recorded declines ranging from 2-3 cents to about a dime.

Cash numbers could count on some screen support Tuesday after the prompt-month gas contract rebounded by 11.9 cents Monday after wavering on either side of flat for much of the morning (see related story). The gas strength at Nymex was accomplished with only a modest gain in crude prices.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has quit posting updates on Hurricane Bill, which it said in the final report Monday morning had lost its “tropical characteristics.” Bill delivered some rain and wind to the New England coastal area but didn’t actually make landfall until it reached southeastern Newfoundland, Canada early Monday.

Meanwhile, NHC said some slow development was “possible” with a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, which it gave a “medium chance” (30-50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.

Despite a low-inventory OFO by PG&E (see Transportation Notes) and highs due to reach the low 90s area at some inland California locations Tuesday, quotes at the PG&E citygate and Malin fell by 8-10 cents or so.

What The Weather Channel called “a weak cold front” will begin to approach the Great Lakes region Tuesday and peak temperatures will be warming into the mid and upper 80s in much of the Midwest, the forecasting service said. The Northeast is starting to see highs trend slightly upward again, but only to seasonable levels after being above normal for much of last week.

Although highs from the mid 90s to the low 100s will keep folks sweaty in Oklahoma and Texas for a while longer, the rest of the South to the east will remain relatively moderate for late August with temperatures topping out on either side of 100. Milder conditions in Florida allowed Florida Gas Transmission to end an Overage Alert Day Saturday after it had been in effect for Friday only.

The West has little heat outside the normally sizzling desert Southwest and a very warm interior California. The Rockies will be fairly mild in the low to mid 80s, while the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada will be cool in the lower 70s following unusual heat in the Pacific Northwest early last week.

A Gulf Coast trader said she had no idea why futures managed a moderately strong rally; normally it would have taken a much bigger gain by crude to make a difference with gas, she said. Her perception of weather influences remains bearish for the most part. It’s still hot here in Texas, she said, but looks mostly moderate in the northern market areas over the next week or so.

The trader said normally she would have been wrapping up next-month baseload business by Monday, but she was running later than usual this month. Her company’s independent producer clients have been slow in coming up with their estimates, she explained. Most of what she has done so far has been at index flat on Louisiana pipes, but both NGPL-TexOk and TGT Zone 1 have traded at index plus 0.25 cent. However, she reported seeing a TGT Zone SL deal done at index minus 0.25 cent on IntercontinentalExchange.

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