Gains of up to about 40 cents at some eastern points Wednesday ran contrary to the general market trend of continued declines. Fresh bursts of colder weather due Thursday in the Northeast, Midwest and to a lesser extent the South, while not expected to be particularly severe, were enough to interrupt the solidity of lower quotes that had marked the launch of the March aftermarket Tuesday.

A majority of points ranged from flat to about 40 cents lower. Losses occurred throughout the West, while most of the gains occurred in the Northeast, Louisiana and Midcontinent.

Not coincidentally, points serving the New England market (Tennessee Zone 6, Iroquois Zone 2 and the Algonquin citygate) were the only ones not trading at substantial discounts to first-of-month indexes on just the second day of March aftermarket activity. Highs are expected to be in the 20s Thursday in most of New England and eastern New York.

A fast-moving storm resembling an Alberta Clipper will leave several inches of accumulating snow over parts of the Northeast Thursday, The Weather Channel (TWC) said. The Midwest can also expect a mix of wintry precipitation, with highs going as low as the teens in the Upper Plains. A cold front will move into the South but it won’t be particularly robust, taking temperatures down to only seasonal means, according to TWC. Colder weather in the West will be limited to the region’s northerly sections.

Despite Wednesday’s scattered gains and a modest screen uptick, the market looks fairly weak going forward, commented a Houston-based marketer. Probably every bit of storage possible is being withdrawn in the market areas, he said, but the people that have leeway to leave storage in place probably are doing so because they can buy day gas cheaper now that what they paid last year for injection supplies. Texas Eastern and Transco are seeing some pretty strong pulls out of their storage facilities, but the withdrawal demand depends on the area, he added.

Quite a few points popped up toward the end of trading because the screen was a little stronger, the marketer continued. Also, some people apparently saw good buying opportunities, although they may regret getting into buying mode so soon if prices keep getting weaker in the March aftermarket, which is what a lot of traders expect, he said. He noted that the Chicago citygate averaged slightly under $6 Wednesday.

The last time Chicago averaged less than $6 was a little more than a year ago, when in Feb. 14, 2005 trading for Feb. 15 flows the citygate matched Wednesday’s number of $5.98.

A Midcontinent producer perceived a “short squeeze in play” that sent prices up late in the morning. “Typically somebody’s gone through their math and found that they’ve missed something,” which prompts the late buying, he said. He reported seeing a range of more than 60 cents on NGPL-TexOk, going from an early low of $5.555 to a high of $6.20 about half-hour before the daily trading deadline.

Referring to the screen settlement gain of a little less than 2 cents to $6.733, the producer noted that “Access just printed a $6.82,” which might help create a little overall cash firmness Thursday. He also said there are colder weekend forecasts in the Midwest. He felt price momemtum was going up Wednesday, so he planned to “ride my long positions” in hopes of higher prices later this week or next week.

Commenting on bidweek trading, the producer said he was “feeling pretty smart” when he left the office Thursday because of the late Nymex run-up. But around mid-afternoon Friday, when the late expiration-day dive got under way, he reported “not feeling so smart any more.”

Global Insight’s Jim Osten expects a storage withdrawal of 144 Bcf to be announced for the week ending Feb. 24. Looking ahead, he projects an 80 Bcf pull for the current week. Kyle Cooper of Citigroup said his final estimation for Thursday’s report calls for a draw of 147-157 Bcf.

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