Natural gas prices were a mixed bag on Tuesday with mild weather and tumbling prices in the Northeast offset by nominal gains in other most other regions as traders grappled with the combination of stronger futures prices and a winter storm lashing the Great Plains.

Tennessee Zone 6 Line 300 slipped more than 75 cents to trade back into the $3.70s and a number of other points in the Northeast also suffered big declines. Deliveries to Algonquin fell more than 50 cents to the $3.80s and Dracut dropped nearly 70 cents to average just shy of $3.80.

Elsewhere around the country, cash prices mostly recorded upticks ranging from a couple of pennies to 8 cents.

“I would think some of those Tennessee prices were the result of physical-to-financial spreads,” said an eastern cash trader. The trader cited the big changes on Tennessee as being consistent with eastern cash market volatility this time of year. “Starting in December it seems as though the market corrects itself. I remember last year January Transco Zone 6 was trading in the $5 range, but it finally settled at $3.30.

“Some of the financial index swaps that were trading positive or flat last week were getting extremely weak. I don’t think anyone wants to own any gas unless they absolutely have to have a physical position on. I think people would get out as soon as they could before [futures] expiration,” the trader said. “It seems lately that the only thing that has been driving the front month [futures] prices has been the weather, and the six- to ten-day forecasts are looking pretty warm. There are a lot of things happening during this time of year. I’m looking for a weak bidweek, especially with the market closing an extra day.”

The trader cited the storms currently pummeling the Great Plains and said, “it doesn’t look like they will come through, and everything looks pretty warm to me. I think a lot of people will unwind positions this week so they don’t have to worry about it next week.”

Some of the largest cash average gains were found in the Midcontinent, where points recorded gains of up to 8 cents. “A blizzard that rocked the Southwest and Southern Plains on Monday is winding down, but not before it left as much as two feet of snow on the ground in some areas. Roads were shut down and numerous car accidents were reported despite urges to stay off the roads,” The Weather Channel (TWC) reported.

Forecasters are not calling for the Southern Plains blizzard to have much impact going forward. MDA Information Systems in its one- to five-day outlook shows above- to much-above-normal temperatures east and north of a line from Mississippi to Montana. The only below-normal temperatures are limited to portions of the Southern Rockies and desert Southwest.

Major metropolitan areas are expected to see above-normal temperatures Wednesday. TWC forecasts a high in Kansas City of 49, nine degrees above normal, and the high in Minneapolis is expected to reach 35, 10 degrees above its seasonal norm. Chicago’s forecast high of 45 is 11 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Futures prices were moderately higher. January added 3.2 cents to $3.128 and February gained 2.7 cents to $3.170 (see related story).

At western points quotes were about a nickel higher with the market offering a stout 19-cent incentive to move gas south from Malin to PGE Citygate. Malin settled at $3.25, up 2 cents, and PGE Citygate was higher by 6 cents to $3.44. Deliveries to SoCal Citygate rose by 4 cents to $3.48.

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