Hurricane Wilma may mean yet another delay in efforts to restore offshore oil and natural gas production to pre-Hurricane Katrina levels, but so far the restoration effort appears to be continuing because of Wilma’s projected sharp right turn around Cuba and course toward southern Florida. Nevertheless, some offshore operators started to evacuate nonessential personnel as a precaution on Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center has not adjusted its official forecast for a couple of days, and Wilma is still expected to strike the western coast of Florida late Saturday. Wilma, a Category 4 hurricane early Thursday, was striking the outer banks of Cancun, Mexico at midday, and was expected to weaken through the rest of the day, with peak winds of about 134 miles per hour. A trough of low pressure moving across the central United States was expected to turn Wilma northwest toward Cozumel Island, and then due north by Friday.

“As Wilma’s eye reforms at a much larger size, the hurricane should begin to intensify again, and a return to Category 5 strength by Friday afternoon is a possibility,” said Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground. The “absolutely critical thing is — where will Wilma stall out?” Masters said it was difficult to “reliably forecast even 12 hours in advance, given the weak steering currents that are likely to exist Friday. We will just have to wait and see what happens. Very small changes in storm position will cause huge changes in Wilma’s intensity.”

On Thursday, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) reported shut-in gas production was 5.196 Bcf/d, about 52% of the daily Gulf production. Cumulative shut-in gas since pre-Katrina is 321.185 Bcf, or 8.8% of the yearly Gulf gas production. About 25% of the 819 manned platforms and nearly 4% of the 134 rigs remained evacuated, according to reports by 68 producers.

Only a few offshore producers were announcing evacuation plans, and of those who were, there were no essential personnel being pulled ahead of Wilma. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said it would begin evacuating about 35 nonessential personnel Friday morning from its only Gulf platform, the Marco Polo. Hurricane Rita shut in about 20,000 boe from Marco Polo and the nearby K2 field, according to Anadarko. Margaret Cooper, an Anadarko spokesperson, said there will be 15 essential personnel remaining on the platform, and she noted production would not be affected.

Late Wednesday, BP plc began evacuating nonessential employees from its central and eastern Gulf of Mexico platforms. No production was expected to be shut in.

Drilling company Transocean Inc. pulled 160 workers from eight rigs and ships as of Thursday morning. Two of the four semisubmersible drilling rigs being evacuated were being repaired after damage by Katrina and Rita.

El Paso Corp. said Wilma so far has not had any impact on its restoration efforts on offshore pipelines and platforms. However, the company could not rule out possible delayed work over the weekend depending on Wilma’s eventual path. “We’re keeping a close eye on it,” said El Paso spokesman Joe Hollier. “It’s still too early to say if [it will impact restoration efforts]. If I had to guess I would say that it won’t affect us if it does what they say it’s going to do. If it makes that hard turn [toward Florida] we should be in good shape.”

About 1,750 MMcf/d of gas production is still shut in upstream of El Paso’s Tennessee Gas pipeline system and another 720 MMcf/d is shut in upstream of El Paso’s Southern Natural pipeline system due to damage to production facilities, feeder pipelines, transmission lines, compressor stations and gas processing facilities.

In related and positive news, the MMS reported that its New Orleans-based Adjudication Office of the Gulf of Mexico Region has reopened. The office serves the oil and gas industry and legal community by issuing new leases, maintaining the official lease record files, maintaining and updating the corporate database and coordinating annual pipeline billings with Royalty Management Program.

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.