Except for generally flat to mildly lower numbers in San Juan Basin and the Rockies, the overall cash market maintained its downward direction for the fifth straight trading day Wednesday. However, the pace of descent got slower as most non-Rockies/San Juan declines ranged from a little more than a dime in the Northeast to nearly 80 cents at the PG&E citygate. A majority of points were seeing losses in the general vicinity of half a dollar.

The most substantial remaining weather load was receding to the upper Northeast and northern parts of the Midwest, and even those areas could expect relatively mild temperatures by the weekend. Elsewhere, spring-like conditions are beginning to become the norm rather than the exception.

The screen followed Tuesday’s plunge with an early-morning uptick that edged back above $6 for a while, but then retreated to an eventual drop of nearly 8 cents for the day. But the crude oil and heating oil contracts were in rally mode, with crude gaining more than a dollar to nearly $38/bbl after the report of a major drop in U.S. inventories combined with the apparent imminence of war with Iraq raised traders’ concern levels again.

Few expected Thursday’s storage report, generally estimated to be a withdrawal of 140 Bcf or so, to have much price impact. The report has pretty well been factored into the market already, one source said.

A Gulf Coast trader remarked that it was something of a watershed in the transitional market from winter to spring to finally be quoting “$5.XX” numbers (that is, under $6) again for the first time since mid-January. Of course, he noted, as recently as last September Gulf Coast pipes had been trading at “$3.XX” levels, more than two dollars below current levels, before beginning their fall-winter climb.

Citing a morning computer class, a marketer said he knew little about Wednesday’s market other than “prices are weaker.” However, he conjectured that with prices now being as much as several dollars below first-of-month indexes, the “relative” bargains might coax a few more buyers out of the woodwork. “Who knows? Some people might even want to get an early jump on storage injections.”

A Florida utility buyer agreed that “it must be a weak market if we’re talking about prices under six dollars again.” But he noted that much of his state is now experiencing high temperatures in the 80s, which almost certainly would mean that air conditioners are getting turned on, “so we might not have a very long period of softness.”

A western trader replied, “That’s a really good question about why San Juan and the Rockies” were defying the general price softness. There were some rumors about Jonah Field cuts behind the Opal Plant, he said. (Indeed, Kern River Wednesday reported being informed by Duke Energy Field Services that Jonah was experiencing problems, adding, “Please call your suppliers to see if a supply realignment is necessary.”) But Kern River maintenance at Goodsprings Compressor Station this week was causing IT cuts, “and that would argue for lower prices since it tends to hold more gas back in the Rockies,” the trader said. Regardless, there certainly wasn’t any weather load to explain to the relative firmness, he added, since Denver was up into the 60s Wednesday.

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