Forecasts of weekend low temperatures ranging from the 20s to 40s in Canada and most of the Lower 48 states would seem like a prescription for higher spot prices, right? But the cash market paid more heed Friday to the previous day’s 27-cent futures decline and the weekend drop of industrial load in falling at most points, bringing last week’s bull run to an end.

A few scattered points avoided the overall softness by ranging from flat to up nearly a dime, with MRT seeing the top gain after ending a System Protection Warning Friday. Otherwise there were quite a few triple-digit plunges in the Midcontinent and West amid losses of a little more than a nickel to about $3.25.

CenterPoint-East, which had begun the week recording the Midcontinent’s lowest quote ever (2.5 cents), was plummeting again after a strong recovery from Tuesday through Thursday. On Friday CenterPoint-East averaged a little less than $1.50 and its bottom-end price was 20 cents.

Much of the Midwest would be five to 20 degrees below average during the weekend, according to The Weather Channel, and a fresh winter storm is expected to be approaching from the Rockies early this week.

Weekend cold fronts were forecast in both the Northeast and South, but their impact on heating load would be relatively moderate. Only the northern end of New England was likely to experience lows less than the 40s in either area.

Low temperatures were due to remain close to freezing in the Rockies Saturday, but conditions were predicted to be merely chilly in the Pacific Northwest and California. The desert Southwest forecast was mixed; for example, Phoenix had a high in the low 80s due Saturday, while Albuquerque, NM, could expect a Saturday low only slightly above freezing, said Madison, WI-based Weather Central.

Hurricane Paloma reached Category Two strength (winds of 96-110 mph) and was pummeling the island of Grand Cayman Friday afternoon, but remained on a northeastward track that would keep it well away from the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. landfall.

PG&E issued a high-inventory OFO for Saturday, but there were a couple of supply shortfalls in the western production area. Kern River said its linepack remained low in all segments Friday after a temporary shutdown of the Pinedale Field Wednesday (see Daily GPI, Nov. 7) despite infusions of extra gas Thursday from Opal Plant operator Williams Field Services and Jonah Gas Gathering operator Enterprise Products Partners. And El Paso, which had been reporting mostly high linepack in the last couple of weeks, was in a much different situation Friday. It said it had set the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition or Critical Operating Condition to moderate due to low linepack.

The Northern Natural Gas bulletin board helped explain why the pipeline’s flat Ventura point was the only one in the Midcontinent not recording a big loss. A posting noted that the normal system-weighted temperature at this time of year is 38 degrees, but it was projecting averages of 33 Friday, 29 Saturday, 30 Sunday and 29 again Monday.

A Midcontinent producer said that despite its price recovery since Monday, CenterPoint had continuing operational issues that resulted in very low prices again Friday. He thought wellhead shut-ins had some impact on the Midcontinent’s big price increases through Thursday of last week, but said some previously shut-in production may have been coming back on-line in response to the rising quotes and helped create a supply glut in the region by the end of the week. And although overnight lows have been in the vicinity of 40, he added, daytime highs in the mid 60s were fairly moderate for early November.

Her area was experiencing heavy winds and freezing low temperatures Friday, “but no snow” so far, said a Lower Midwest utility buyer. Her company can expect heavy system throughput through the end of this week, she said, which means it will be uncomfortably cold for residents but good for the utility’s bottom line. It needs the revenue boost because of light heating demand during most of October, she added. Although gas supplies are plentiful, the utility is getting its LNG and propane tanks ready to go just in case they are needed during the cold spell, she said.

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