Traders were in agreement that, with moderating weather trends in sight, there was little reason for prices to rebound across the board Thursday other than Wednesday’s action in Nymex’s crude oil trading pit, where crude for April delivery set intraday and daily settlement records.

Amid notably narrow ranges in most cases, gains were remarkably consistent across all geographic areas in ranging from a nickel to about a quarter, with a solid majority of points seeing increases in the teens.

The outlook for Friday was a bit clouded. Crude futures hit yet another intraday all-time high of $57.60/bbl, but the settlement was off 6 cents from the previous day to $56.40. Still, their ability to remain above $56 was considered impressive in several quarters. Meanwhile, the natural gas screen was a bit stronger than on Wednesday with a 4.6-cent increase Thursday.

But whether futures support could offset waning fundamentals was a toss-up. Temperatures were due to remain below average Friday across much of the U.S., but would begin to warm up slightly in several areas over the weekend, and the general moderating trend is expected to continue next week.

Also, the Energy Information Administration threw what was considered a mildly bearish storage report into the equation, although at least one source characterized the estimate of a 95 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 11 as “a nonevent.” The volume was toward the lower end of consensus prior guesses centering around 90-110 Bcf.

A utility buyer in the Lower Midwest who was in a selling mode saw a bullish sign in the tendency of prices to rise as trading went on. He reported selling Northern Natural-demarc at $6.90 early — near the lower end of its range, which averaged in the mid $6.90s. He saw that as an amazingly high demarc price for the middle of March. Contrary to the overall expected moderation coming up, his local weather would be turning colder. But the buyer wasn’t particularly concerned, since unusually mild temperatures at 60 degrees Thursday afternoon would be returning to “more normal” readings around 50 starting Friday.

A marketer called Chicago-area temperatures in the 40s “fairly warm” for this time of year. Citygate numbers got a little boost from some people already looking for end-of-month balancing gas, he said. Current cash gas prices are largely a function of both oil and gas futures, he added.

A Northeast utility buyer reported no purchases Thursday “because we felt prices were too high and would come off with the weather moderating soon.” After the recent run-ups, his company felt like it could afford to wait out the market. “That’s the advantage of having a good storage system,” the buyer said. He was one of several who were unable to see anything other than Wednesday’s record oil futures that pushed up cash prices Thursday.

A Midwest marketer sort of echoed the Northeast buyer, calling prices “pretty ugly” and reporting that she hadn’t bought anything for the last couple of days. “We’re waiting for warmer weather,” she said, and besides, the storage number looked bearish to her. She was pleased to note that Access futures were coming in our direction” Thursday afternoon. Upper Midwest highs will start reaching the relatively mild 40s either Friday or Saturday, she said.

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