Prices were in retreat by mostly small amounts at nearly all points Wednesday despite heating load remaining fairly robust in several regions. One source felt that it was mainly a case of the market having wrung all the upside it could out of this week’s cold spells and having only minuscule next-day support from energy futures.

A few flat points were mixed with declines that ranged from 2-3 cents to about 15 cents or so. Other than the Northeast and Waha/Permian Basin areas tending to have the greatest number of double-digit declines, there was little geographic variation among the various markets.

As of Tuesday traders were expecting prices to remain firm through Thursday, then begin to ease up for the weekend. Obviously that didn’t happen. But after Nymex’s crude oil contract for April soared to record highs — both intraday and daily settlement — of $56.60/bbl and $56.46/bbl respectively, sentiment began to favor a potential rebound Thursday. Whether that would carry over into Friday’s trading was up in the air.

The oil futures spike came despite American Petroleum Institute and Department of Energy reports Wednesday morning showing sizeable (but mostly expected) increases in crude inventories during the previous week. However, the estimates of unleaded gasoline and distillates (which includes heating oil) stockpiles showed equally sizeable reductions.

April natural gas futures failed to follow oil for the most part, managing only a paltry 1.3-cent gain.

Weather fundamentals continued to argue for firmer prices, with varying degrees of cold and icy precipitation predicted for Thursday in the West, Midwest and Northeast. The South was expected to be mostly wet but with temperatures continuing to run below seasonal norms.

A Calgary-based producer was among those who thought the oil spike would help to rally cash gas numbers Thursday, since generally weather patterns aren’t expected to see much moderation before the weekend. Temperatures were close to normal — around freezing, that is — in the Calgary area. Heating load remained strong in the Midwest, where he trades the Chicago citygate, but regional temperatures will be more seasonable by next week, he said.

It’s been a pretty good month for storage “clean-up” so far, the producer continued, referring to the sieges of cold in the West that have prompted some large weekly pulls for the closing phase of the traditional withdrawal season. “It looks pretty certain” that the industry will wind up the season with 1.2-1.25 Bcf left stashed away, he said, adding that is still on the high side, but nothing the market can’t accommodate comfortably.

A Northeast marketer also looks for some “follow-through” from the oil market in cash gas. His region will “stay very cold” through Thursday, then see a gradual moderation of temperatures, he said. He expects Thursday’s cash prices to track oil until the storage report comes out, then essentially “wing it” from there. Temperatures should be about normal for mid-March next week in the Northeast, he said.

The National Weather Service has a decidedly moderating outlook for the March 21-25 workweek. The only area where it predicts below normal temperatures is north of a line that starts at the northwest corner of Washington state, runs southeastward through the northern Rockies into the Midcontinent as far south as Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, then curves northeastward into the Midwest before veering eastward through northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

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