After refusing to bow to weak weather fundamentals in the previous two days, prices practically did a curtsy for weather Friday with declines ranging from about a dime to a quarter. The softness was fairly homogenous across geographic areas, although Northeast citygates and several western points tended to garner most of the drops of 20 cents or more.

Only Florida and a swath from the desert Southwest through Nevada and Utah into Idaho had major cooling demand with daily highs of 90 degrees or more expected to last into the weekend. Otherwise hot weather continued to recede, even in the South where a cold front was entering the Gulf Coast states Friday. The early-summer situation is so out of kilter that record-breaking cold (date-specific) was being recorded Friday morning from North Dakota to Missouri, according to The Weather Channel.

A Midwest marketer thought the “little bit of bullishness” from Thursday’s storage report wore off quickly and fundamental reality was setting into the swing market Friday. Naturally, the lower industrial load associated with a weekend also was a factor, he said.

Except possibly in the West, it likely will be difficult for prices to mount a rally Monday, one source said, because not only will moderate temperatures persist in the Northeast and Midwest, but the cash market will have Friday’s 13.2-cent screen loss as an influence. However, the widespread system of thunderstorms that kept high temperatures subdued in most of the South last week may be ending, and the region could start experiencing more normal highs in the 90s, he added.

A high-linepack OFO by PG&E contributed to western softness. However, a hint of supply stabilization in the West came from Kern River, which was reporting normal linepack in three of its four segments Friday, with only the farthest downstream segment still experiencing high linepack. Previously it had posted systemwide high linepack reports for a lengthy period.

With a relatively quiet weekend market, traders turned more attention to July business. However, a marketer reported that bidweek activity had “really gotten dead this [Friday] afternoon. None of our phones have rung for the last couple of hours.” He said people were telling him they had trouble finding markets for July, but he wasn’t sure if that meant a lot of buyers were going into the month short or if there was a genuine shortage of demand.

The marketer also said he was being told by some customers that they are already well ahead on storage injection schedules and can use those cushions to avoid potential spikes in August bidweek prices that could result from very hot weather.

A western trader estimated that July numbers were down about a dime Friday due to futures softness. She reported these levels in deals done Friday: San Juan-Blanco mid $5.40s, Transwestern Permian high $5.70s, ANR Southwest $5.98, NGPL Midcontinent low $5.90s, Panhandle Eastern mid $5.90s, and Waha $5.99.

One source said Chicago basis was still getting done at minus 2 cents. He didn’t know if it was hit, but said the citygate got bid as low as minus 3.5 cents before getting “a pop back up.”

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper’s initial estimation of the upcoming storage report looks for a build in the mid to upper 90s Bcf range.

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