Midweek cooling trends apparently carried more price boosting punch than some traders had expected. Nearly all points were between flat and up nearly half a dollar Wednesday (however, only one point — El Paso San Juan-Bondad — was at the high end; gains elsewhere were limited to less than a quarter).

In the few cases of softness in the Gulf Coast, Midcontinent and Northern California/Pacific Northwest markets, losses ranged from a couple of pennies to about 20 cents.

Although it is primarily the Midwest and Upper Plains areas feeling an extra chill, their increased heating load was being felt in other markets. And the rest of the U.S., while enjoying generally comfortable temperatures now, can also expect to be feeling extra nips in the air as the weekend arrives, according to The Weather Channel.

California prices saw a sharp north-south divide as PG&E extended a high-linepack OFO into a second day (see Transportation Notes). While Malin and the PG&E citygate fell by about a dime or less, the Southern California border rose nearly 15 cents.

“It’s a crazy market” with these wild price swings at Nymex, said a Houston-based marketer, referring to negative early showings by the natural gas and oil-related futures contracts turning into large increases by the end of the day. Crude oil reportedly was rallied by news of an oil pipeline explosion in Mexico and Royal Dutch/Shell Group’s announcement that it had lost 20,000 bbl/d in exports from Nigeria after saboteurs set fire to a ruptured pipeline. Crude for November delivery soared by more than a dollar to $53.64/bbl Wednesday following Tuesday’s major retreat, and the gas screen apparently went along for the oil ride in rising more than 20 cents Wednesday.

The screen rebound should carry over into further cash advances Thursday, the marketer said. For example, on Wednesday afternoon Henry Hub for the 15th was being bid at $5.67 and offered at $5.75, he noted. The $5.71 midpoint of that spread would be a little more than 30 cents above the Hub average Wednesday.

The marketer also reported “pretty strong utility buying around Chicago,” indicating that heating load may have grown more than what was expected earlier in the week. Referring to a suggestion that the utilities could have taken a little out of storage rather than pay for citygates that rose about 15 cents Wednesday, he said utilities don’t speculate on price moves with storage. “Once it [gas] gets put away during injection season, it stays there until winter starts,” he added. The utilities are buying gas for public consumption, and can’t risk regulators’ wrath by getting caught short in the winter, he said.

A Midwest trader observed that lower 60s afternoon temperatures in Michigan didn’t seem cold enough to cause much increase in heating load, “but something’s got people buying gas” and raising prices. She had thought that surely after the big drops Tuesday in energy futures, cash prices would keep falling Wednesday.

Although Minerals Management Service (MMS) said oil and gas that had been shut in last weekend due to Tropical Storm Matthew was back online again, the count on Hurricane Ivan-related gas outages crept up just a tad Wednesday. With 19 companies reporting to it, the federal agency said 1,706.02 MMcf/d remained shut in the Gulf of Mexico, only 0.4 MMcf/d higher than the previous day’s tally.

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