Lower 48 energy producers, in response to a massive OPEC-plus supply cut that is expected to spur a surge in oil prices, could bolster crude output in the final months of 2022 to both capitalize and ensure domestic supply/demand balance, analysts said Thursday.

U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies could increase output to 12.7 million b/d by the end of the year, Rystad Energy said. That would mark a 700,000 b/d jump from September levels and bring production within striking distance of the record 13.1 million b/d level reached in March 2020, before the pandemic.

“The question is if, and how fast, production can be accelerated,” said Rystad’s Jorge Leon, senior vice president. He expects private producers that are unencumbered by investors’ calls for public...