With a great deal of assistance from a futures increase just shy of 30 cents on the preceding Friday, weather forecasts remained cold enough to keep prices rising in virtually all of the cash market Monday.

A decline of about a nickel at the MichCon citygate was the sole exception to numbers ranging from flat to nearly 85 cents higher. The Carthage Hub’s recovery from a similarly extra-large decline Friday skewed the overall price movement picture somewhat; otherwise gains were capped at about 40 cents.

It will be less than before, but futures support for the cash market will continue Tuesday after the prompt-month November contract rose another 5.4 cents Monday (see related story).

Warming trends were under way or about to begin in several regions such as the Northeast, South and Midwest, but the overall weather outlook remains fairly chilly for mid-October, especially in the South.

Meanwhile, colder temperatures are settling into the West after a stormy weekend for much of the region. Overnight lows around freezing are returning to Western Canada after a short-lived warm-up late last week, and the U.S. Rockies are in a cooldown period that will bring lows in the 30s Tuesday. Even the desert Southwest is retreating from summer-like conditions again; Phoenix, which had been approaching 100 degrees as recently as Sunday, is not expected to get above the upper 80s Tuesday, according to Weather Central.

With a weekend high-inventory OFO by PG&E having ended Monday (see Transportation Notes), transportation constraints are currently scarce.

The National Weather Service is looking for below-normal temperatures in virtually all of the eastern three-fourths of the U.S. (except for Maine) during the Oct. 24-28 period. It expects above-normal readings only in California and a slim edge along the western Nevada border.

It’s still chilly “but not all that cold,” said a Midwest marketer. However, his company was still buying some spot gas Monday to keep up with its clients’ heating needs, he said. The local area had gotten warmer than it was last week, he added, but is likely to be getting snow flurries again over the coming weekend.

The marketer said he usually judges late-winter Midwest load prospects by conditions during November. If it’s especially cold then, you can expect to be using a lot of storage and/or buying a lot of spot gas during January and February, he said.

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