An updated tropical outlook issued by WSI Corp. trims the number of storms forecast, with 14 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) predicted. At the same time the Andover, MA-based provider of weather-driven business solutions sees alternating warmer than normal temperatures through October in some areas and cooling in others, adding up to neutral to bearish gas prices.

WSI had previously forecast 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes (see NGI, July 2).

The numbers are still larger than the long-term averages of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes, and also larger than the numbers from 2006, WSI said. The main drivers of the expected active season are a continuation of the warm tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a relatively benign vertical wind shear environment due to a lack of an El Nino event.

“The tropical Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies have remained cool into July, relative to recent years, and now compare best to 2000 and 2002,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “Because the ocean temperatures have not yet rebounded from the significant drop in late spring, we have decided to reduce our forecast numbers slightly. However, both 2000 and 2002 were active seasons, and we continue to expect an active season, relative to both 2006 and long-term averages.

“Finally, our seasonal temperature forecast is now less bullish on late-summer heat in the Southeast, with the subtropical ridge migrating farther to the north than originally expected. Because of this, we feel that the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida.”

The forecaster’s most recent Energycast Outlook, predicts warmer than normal temperatures for the August-October time frame in all locations except for Pacific coastal cities, parts of Texas and the extreme Northern tier of states.

“It appears that the western heat will finally make progress to the east in August, especially across the north-central and Great Lakes states,” Crawford said. “There is still significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the heat in the Northeast, however. Meanwhile, the Southeast has transitioned to a cooler, wetter pattern in July, and it will likely be difficult to get significant heat there as well. Texas should remain relatively cool, as the wet ground will continue to drive the pattern and keep temperatures down and precipitation values up.”

In the monthly breakdown, WSI calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast and South Central regions in August, lowering the outlook for power-sector gas demand and significantly lowering the expectations for extended heat events in those areas. The warmest temperatures are expected in the North Central and Southwest regions. The overall moderate outlook for temperatures across the country will moderate gas demand for cooling, and storage inventories should continue to build upon the current high levels through August. WSI predicts that power prices in the Northeast regional transmission organizations and Texas should be moderate, with lower load expectations due to the cooler-than-normal forecast.

The WSI September forecast indicates slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country, with cooler-than-normal temperatures expected in California, the Northwest and parts of Texas. WSI predicts that the cooler weather in California and Texas will have a bearish impact on natural gas demand from the power sector, while slightly warmer weather in the Northeast will result in only marginal offsetting demand increases. Overall, natural gas demand in September should be neutral to bearish for gas prices. The cooler outlook in California diminishes the likelihood of late-season extended heat events and the occurrence of associated power price spikes, WSI predicted.

The WSI October forecast indicates colder-than-normal temperatures across the North Central and Northwest regions. The early-season heating demand for natural gas in October should be low to moderate, WSI predicted, because most other regions will experience warmer-than-normal temperatures. Planned generator maintenance outages will have more influence on energy prices than will temperature swings in the shoulder demand month of October, the forecaster said.

The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000). The next forecast package, for September-November, is scheduled to be issued Aug. 14.

In June WSI said it still expects the tropical season to have 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes (see NGI, July 2).

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