Triple-digit gains at most of the Northeast citygates led an overall cash market advance Friday, as forecasts indicated little let-up this week in the severe winter conditions occupying much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. and Canada.

Non-Northeast gains were more modest and considerably varied, ranging from flat to barely higher in the Rockies to up a quarter or more. San Juan-Blanco was the rare point seeing a loss of a little more than a dime.

Only half a month into the new year, Transco Zone 6-NYC has hit a peak of $10.50 that could stand as the record for the entirety of 2003. Then again, it could be eclipsed as early as this week. Some traders think the current prolonged siege of freezing weather may continue to propel prices even higher.

A Northeast utility buyer wasn’t optimistic about getting any price relief this week. “My seven-day and extended forecasts both are calling for very cold, so we’ll stay pretty wintry through at least next week and maybe beyond.”

A Houston-based marketer reported being told by a Midwest LDC staffer Friday that sustained cold could create a real problem for their operations. He also found it “interesting” that another Midwest utility had called him Wednesday evening on a cell phone as he was entering a store. “The guy was checking on their suppliers’ emergency numbers. He didn’t want anything other than to verify that the numbers were legitimate and active, not waiting until they actually needed gas in a hurry.”

Extreme cold over an extended period can deplete linepack, slowing deliveries, causing a harder pull on market-area storage and sending utility buyers scrambling for additional supplies for core customers. In other winters utility and pipeline personnel have been forced into extended duty over several days, working and sleeping in shifts to keep the gas flowing.

A buyer said he was hearing of flow problems in El Paso’s San Juan-Blanco pool as the reason for its softening. Meanwhile, San Juan-Bondad nunbers were rising from the mid $3.60s to around $3.80 as trading proceeded, he said. The buyer noted that the SoCal border was at a substantial discount to Permian Basin-Keystone quotes last week. By his calculations, the month started with the border 22.5 cents above Keystone, but the border went negative on Jan. 10 and as of last Friday was about a quarter below Keystone.

A lot of California people are buying Bondad gas as much as possible, the buyer continued, rather than paying nearly a dollar more in the Blanco pool and “something like a buck-fifty” more in Permian Basin. Right now intrastate Texas traders are almost certain to outbid the Californians for Permian gas anyway, he said.

A source in Calgary said he got a late start in trading intra-Alberta from the low C$6.80s to the mid C$6.90s. Prices were higher than that earlier, he said, but dropped in response to the Nymex weakness. The screen fell 10.9 cents Friday.

Virtually all of Friday’s deals were done for flow through Tuesday due to the Martin Luther King Day holiday Monday. However, a couple of U.S. utility buyers and a Canadian producer said they would be working Monday, with all agreeing that it would primarily be a catching-up-on-paperwork day.

Weary of paying high prices for his gas, an eastern utility buyer said he was “getting tired of people talking about how El Nino is supposed to mean a mild back of winter, because it’s just not happening.”

Lehman Brothers analyst Thomas Driscoll is predicting a withdrawal of 200 Bcf in this week’s storage report. Kyle Cooper of Salomon Smith Barney said his initial estimation is for a draw “near 200 Bcf, but probably slightly below.”

©Copyright 2003 Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news report may not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in any form, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.