The cash market continued to build on the weekend price gains with new upticks Monday that were generally in single digits at most eastern points but ranged from about a dime to more than 40 cents (San Juan-Blanco) in the Northeast and much of the West.

Cold weather was the price story in most areas outside the Southeast, and a cold front that stretched from West Texas through the Mid-Atlantic and was swooping southeastward Monday promised to snuff out nearly all remaining pockets of mild temperatures before Wednesday. The Midwest can expect a light dusting of snow amid otherwise dry but cold conditions Tuesday, according to The Weather Channel, and a pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm is in store for much of the Northeast. The West was already covered by a blanket of chill continuing to bring snow to parts of the Rocky Mountains and causing even the normally moderate desert Southwest to struggle to get above 70 degrees.

Traders got little market input from an unchanged natural gas screen (unless you consider a rise of one-tenth of a cent a significant “change”), although Nymex’s crude oil and heating oil contracts experienced large losses. However, a couple of sources thought the weather outlook was severe enough to assure further moderate price firmness Tuesday.

That view got some support from rising trends during Monday’s activity reported by marketers in the Gulf Coast and West. One was unsure whether to attribute Malin’s rise of about a dime from early numbers in the low $3.90s to people caught in short supply positions or just a general lack of liquidity that has been a market factor for some time. Also, a Midcontinent producer said Panhandle Eastern and ANR Southwest seemed to be short as late prices went higher, but added that “it’s been that way for the last couple of weeks, so there’s really nothing new there.”

Virtually all traders are expected to wind up the November aftermarket by trading swing through the end of the month Tuesday, then do deals for Dec. 1-2 on Wednesday.

A couple of leading analysts were notably closer together in their estimates for this week’s storage report than they had been a week ago (see Daily GPI, Nov. 19). Thomas Driscoll of Lehman Brothers expects EIA to announce a withdrawal of about 50 Bcf (5 Bcf more than a previous estimate) compared to an injection of 30 Bcf a year ago and a five-year average withdrawal of 50 Bcf. Driscoll also estimated that inventories ended last week at 3,046 Bcf versus a five-year average of 2,928 bcf. Meanwhile, Kyle Cooper of Salomon Smith Barney looks for a drawdown of 41-51 Bcf, saying he changed his estimate from an earlier one (low to mid 40s Bcf) after regional analysis.

“In sum, our initial estimations are based only [on] a national model while our final estimation includes a more detailed regional analysis,” Cooper said. “The regional models are indicating a larger draw…However, historically the nation models, which are indicating a smaller draw, have a higher correlation while recently the regional models have been more accurate…One item of note, due to regional temperature differences, this report should be quite supportive of the Nymex. A slight build is considered likely out West. Thus, the inventory draw east of the Rockies could easily exceed 50 Bcf.”

Several sources agreed that trading for December was quite light Monday, but not necessarily about the reason. One said he thought a lot of bidweek business had gotten done Friday in anticipation of the long holiday. But another anticipated that many people wanted to get closer to Tuesday afternoon’s futures expiry before concluding December deals. He added that the unusually late Nymex closure appeared to be throwing some people off, “but I’m cool with it.”

A couple of eastern traders saw no appreciable movement Monday in bidweek prices from Friday’s levels, but a western source perceived them to be off a bit Monday.

The coming holiday is not of much interest for some Aeco traders. “We already had our Thanksgiving,” said a Canadian producer. “Come Wednesday afternoon things are going to slow waaaaaay down. It can be kind of boring, but it does give us an opportunity to clear up our positions. We presold most of our gas in term deals, so it has been a quiet bidweek for us. I am only doing three deals at Chicago. I’ll save one of them for Tuesday; with only one more package to sell, I can afford to take my time.”

A marketer quoted basis at minus 6.5 cents for Tennessee 800 Leg, minus 1.75 cents for TGT Zone SL and plus 4.5 cents for Columbia Gulf mainline.

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