Even with their first prior-day futures support in more than a week, cash prices fell at all but one point Friday. Several triple-digit plunges were observed in the West. The market was depressed by the long-standing lack of significant heating or cooling load in most areas, full pipes, rapidly declining storage injection options and the loss of industrial load that accompanies a weekend.

Losses ranged from a little more than a dime to nearly $2.50. NOVA Inventory Transfer recorded the sole gain of about C5 cents by virtue of sub-freezing overnight lows in the Calgary area.

Quotes fell hard in most of the West despite a winter-resembling storm that would bring snow to several sections and take high temperatures to five to 30 degrees below average, The Weather Channel said. A freezing low of 30 was forecast for Saturday in Denver. The storm would virtually wipe out cooling load in the desert Southwest. Phoenix had peak temperatures approaching 100 as recently as Thursday, but was dropping rapidly toward an expected high of 80 Saturday, according to Madison, WI-based Weather Central. That largely was responsible for Kern Delivery (Arizona/Nevada) seeing the day’s biggest plunge.

The Midwest and Northeast markets ignored forecasts of approaching cold fronts in each area, largely because the fronts would not begin arriving until the end of the weekend. A warming trend was continuing in the Midwest, with Chicago’s high predicted to from about 74 Friday to 80 Saturday, Weather Central said. However, a wintry scenario with freezing lows was in store for the Upper Plains. Temperatures in New York City were dropping almost imperceptibly, with Saturday’s high expected to be in the low to mid 70s.

The South was due to continue basking in pleasantly warm highs in the mid 80s, which didn’t call for many gas-fired peaking generation units to satisfy moderate air conditioning demand.

Excess supplies again dampened the Southwest and Southern California markets. SoCalGas extended a high-linepack OFO through at least Saturday, and El Paso reported raising the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition (SOC) or Critical Operating Condition due to high linepack from moderate Thursday to high Friday. “System linepack is currently at 7,850 MMcf and loads are starting the day lower in the southwest Arizona service area as compared to yesterday [Thursday],” El Paso said. “…If the situation fails to improve, declaration of a Pack SOC may be required. Washington Ranch [storage facility] is on maximum injection.”

The Southern California border and SoCal citygate took the second and third largest price hits, with losses of $2.15 or so each. The SoCal citygate, which debuted Oct. 1 with a first-of-month index at $5.59 and a daily average of $5.87, averaged in the high $2.60s Friday.

There definitely was “plenty of gas to go around,” said a Florida utility buyer. He noted that Florida Gas Transmission Zone 3 basis has been looking pretty weak in trading several cents below Henry Hub recently. It wasn’t that long ago when Zone 3 commanded a multi-dollar premium to the Hub, he said.

A utility buyer said it had been chilly in his area earlier in the week, but even then there was no heating load to speak of. Now it’s turning mild again, with a high around 80 due Saturday, he said.

Gulf of Mexico producers again struggled to make progress in reducing shut-ins. After a temporary halt Wednesday and a decline of only 7 MMcf/d Thursday, 62 companies reported to Minerals Management Service (MMS) that 2,827 MMcf/d was still off-line Friday — down only 26 MMcf/d from Thursday. A similar snail’s pace was observed in the restoration of crude output, with outages of 562,916 b/d Friday only 1,064 b/d lower than the day before, MMS said. Evacuated platforms fell by four to 81.

After a couple of weeks of sharp drops, the number of drilling rigs seeking natural gas in the U.S. rose by four to 1,548 during the week ending Oct. 10, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). The Gulf of Mexico recorded an increase of five rigs, while the onshore count was down by one. The latest Baker Hughes tally was 4% less than a month ago but 7% above the year-earlier level.

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