Cash natural gas prices rose 3 cents overall Monday, with gains paced by strong Northeast points undergoing pipeline outages, and higher points in California. Other major market centers were mixed. Futures prices waffled throughout the day, but managed a positive finish, with June ending up 1.5 cents to $3.925 and July adding 1.1 cents to $3.971. June crude oil fell 87 cents to $95.17/bbl.

“There’s a pipeline maintenance on Tennessee, and that is firming up prices,” said a Houston-based northeast marketer. “Prices [on Algonquin and Tennessee] should also be higher Tuesday as well, but people that have to buy will buy, mainly power plants. Weather is not a factor in the Boston area.”

For the most part, next-day power prices provided little economic support for prompt natural gas prices. IntercontinentalExchange reported that power for Tuesday delivery into the New England Power Pool’s Massachusetts Hub fell $3.75 to $43.45/MWh, and deliveries to the PJM West Hub added 80 cents to $40.56/MWh.

Temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard were only slightly below normal, but unlikely to increase demand for heating. Forecaster Wunderground.com said Monday’s high in Boston of 58 would rise to 63 on Tuesday and 64 on Wednesday. The normal high in Boston is 66. New York City’s Monday high of 59 was expected to advance to 64 Tuesday and 66 Wednesday. The normal high in New York is 70.

Forecasters called for an influx of cooler and wetter weather. “Cooler weather returns to the East on Monday, while showers and thunderstorms spread across the Northwest,” said Wunderground.com meteorologist Kari Kiefer. “In the East, the cold front that brought wet weather to the East Coast on Sunday will move further offshore on Monday, while an associated trough of low pressure remains over southeastern Canada. Northwest winds flowing on the back of the trough will usher a cooler airmass from Canada into the Eastern Seaboard, leading to unseasonably cold temperatures.”

Quotes on Algonquin Citygate added 18 cents to $4.46, and deliveries into Iroquois Waddington gained about 11 cents to $4.53. On Dominion, next-day deliveries were seen at $3.97, up a penny, and on Tetco M-3, gas for Tuesday was seen at $4.05, up 3 cents. Gas bound for New York City on Transco Zone 6 changed hands at $4.13, up 11 cents.

In California, Monday’s seasonally high temperatures were forecast to fall to normal levels by midweek, but next-day gas rose. Wunderground.com said Los Angeles’ high Monday of 87 would slide to 79 on Tuesday and to 73 on Wednesday. The normal high in Los Angeles is 74. In San Diego Monday’s high of 81 was expected to ease to 75 Tuesday and to 70 on Wednesday. The normal high in San Diego is 69 this time of year.

Gas at PG&E Citygate for Tuesday delivery added 4 cents to $4.05, and gas at SoCal Citygate gained 9 cents to $4.14. Deliveries to the SoCal Border added 8 cents to $3.95, and quotes for gas at the El Paso S Mainline added 10 cents to $4.03.

Prices at other major delivery points were mixed. At Chicago Citygate, next-day gas fell 3 cents to $3.99, and at the Henry Hub gas was seen at $3.87, down 3 cents as well. Deliveries to El Paso Bondad rose 6 cents to $3.78, and at Opal Tuesday gas came in at $3.79, 6 cents higher.

“The range was only 8.9 cents [June] and that is pretty thin,” said a New York floor trader. “Volume was light and trading was really kind of stagnant. Everybody is waiting for something to develop.

Prior to the open, Tradition Energy’s Addison Armstrong said the market was “look[ing] to consolidate just above last week’s one-month low. Gas prices have now slid more than 12% after reaching a 21-month high at $4.444 earlier this month, as mild spring weather and limited seasonal demand have eased fears of a tightening supply outlook that had seen storage levels fall more than 800 Bcf below last year’s levels. Weather forecasts are little-changed to open the week, with normal to below-normal temperatures expected across Texas and the Southeast in the coming weeks, while the Midwest and Northeast are expected to see normal to above-normal temperatures throughout the rest of May.”

A lot of undecided traders are said to be waiting to enter or exit the market. Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective last Friday said trading volume since May 2, when the market traded 550,000 lots following a bearish inventory report, has slumped. His figures show 340,000 contracts changing hands since then, and the “lighter volume suggests a degree of market uncertainty, with traders unsure whether to double down on bullish bets or to cut back on exposures. Most seem to be either nibbling or waiting rather than trading boldly.”

Evans expects a fundamental shift in the market. “After a cycle of colder than normal temperatures translated into bullish storage comparisons between February 15 and April 26, there has been both a seasonal shift to milder temperatures and a shift in the weather specific pattern. The above average 88 Bcf storage injection for the week ended May 3 largely confirms this shift, but we see above average storage injections as the new, intermediate term trend.”

Evans forecasts this week’s storage build to be 106 Bcf. “With storage as forecast, the 99 Bcf year-on-five-year average deficit from May 3 would fall to 45 Bcf as of May 24, applying downward fundamental pressure on prices.”

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