Prices were falling almost across the board Tuesday in both late-June swing deals and in bidweek trading. The screen was an obvious negative influence, but of greater impact was a growing feeling that prospects are dim for the market to pull out of its tailspin anytime soon.

Once again eastern declines (along with Permian Basin/Waha) were relatively moderate at about 18 cents or less, although a greater number of points were registering drops between 10 and 15 cents than on Monday. However, Northeast citygates fell less than a dime, as hot and muggy weather moved into the region, and Transco Zone 6-NYC achieved the day’s rare feat of a double-digit gain. A Houston source reported talking with someone in the New York City area and being told it was “very warm” there. “Join the [Houston] club!” the source said he responded.

Meanwhile, the market took a much harder fall in most of the West, where traders just could not find enough load to sustain Monday’s big rebounds from weekend softness. San Juan-Blanco and Sumas managed to keep their losses under a quarter, and thanks to its close futures-tracking tendencies, the intra-Alberta market fell less than C10 cents. But other western declines ranged from about 35 cents upward, led by a dollar-plus dive by border-SoCalGas.

A staffer for a large producer/marketer said he has to wonder “if we’re going to eventually see some regional markets start to disconnect [from the overall market] as their storage facilities get filled.” That’s already nearly happened in the Pacific Northwest, he said. Sumas, which earlier this year commanded multi-dollar premiums over Northwest domestic pricing at times, has been coming down to little more than a 20-cent spread recently, he noted. That’s largely because Northwest was close to filling Jackson Prairie storage about two weeks ago, but then they started withdrawing again to provide operational flexilibity. Although it may seem out of season, the staffer thinks there will be more Jackson Prairie withdrawals over the next month or so, bringing Sumas/domestic numbers closer to parity.

Several sources agreed that July bidweek numbers generally were “dropping along with the screen.” A western trader said his Sumas numbers Monday ranged from the mid $2.70s to the mid $2.90s, but were straddling the $2.70 level Tuesday. Other downtrends were similar, he said.

Generally July business remained slow Tuesday but that was reasonable to expect, one marketer said, because “a lot of people are waiting for Wednesday afternoon’s one-two combo of the July futures expiry and the AGA storage report before they really get serious” about bidweek. He reported index-based prices starting to strengthen “a bit” in the Midcontinent, but said basis got a little weaker.

A Tulsa-based trader reflected general sentiment that prices “will keep going lower for a while longer.” Buyers know that they’re in command for now, he said, especially with the Independence Day holiday coming up in the middle of the first week of July. The buyers don’t seem to want to buy much July baseload, “and when they do they want to buy it, its at index minus a bunch.” The trader said he was seeing Waha deals being done at index minus 4-6 cents, and San Juan-Blanco trading at index minus 8-10 cents. “The only thing to turn this market around is normal summer heat, and that’s not in sight at this point,” the trader concluded.

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