With a recession appearing more likely in 2023 and uncertainty swirling around natural gas flows from Russia to Europe, natural gas markets may be in for a bumpy ride heading into the shoulder and winter seasons.

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“Our baseline is that you will see a recession in 2023,” Macquarie Group Ltd.’s David Doyle, head of economics, told NGI. 

Doyle is scheduled to deliver the keynote address on day two of LDC Gas Forums’ Mid-Continent Forum Sept. 12-14 in Chicago.

He cited the presence of numerous leading indicators that have historically preceded economic contraction, including rapid wage growth and a spike in the cost of energy as a percentage of household income.

Notably, Doyle said, there has been “a change in tone” of late from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman...