European natural gas storage inventories are so full heading into injection season and Asian demand remains weak enough that there is a remote possibility of U.S. LNG cargo cancellations later this summer.

Even a limited number of cargo cancellations would mark an extraordinary turnaround from a tight market that’s been shaped by supply fears since Russia invaded Ukraine. It would also come just ahead of what’s likely to be a bullish winter driven once again by Europe’s arduous task of getting through another heating season without Russian imports.  

U.S. offtakers “canceling LNG exports again this year is not in our base case, and we don’t see it as likely,” said Goldman Sachs’ Samantha Dart, head of natural gas research. “But if you ask me whether there’s a...