Relatively innocuous cold fronts trudging through the major market areas of the East weren’t enough to keep most points from turning south again. Prospects for waning weather-related demand as the week proceeds and weak energy futures caused the overall market to retreat by larger amounts Tuesday than it had advanced Monday, despite a few points recording flat to moderately higher numbers.

The natural gas screen didn’t stray very far below flat during morning cash business, although heating oil saw a major loss and crude oil a more moderate one, with crude finishing the day down more than half a dollar to just under $28/bbl. Because the gas contract waited until after cash trading was completed to slide most of the way to an eventual loss of nearly 21 cents, a couple of sources said the negative momentum likely would show up in the cash market Wednesday.

A Northeast trader doesn’t think a two-day cessation of deliveries to Tennessee at Dracut, MA late next week (see Transportation Notes) will be a big issue. People will work around it, he said, although traders might see Tennessee Zone 6 “better bid” during the outage. People will probably try to build up Tennessee linepack in the area in the preceding couple of days so any Zone 6 shortfalls are unlikely, the trader said.

Several sources commented Tuesday that in contrast to the market fireworks in the first half of March, activity has gotten much more complacent over the last week or so, and Tuesday was probably the quietest yet. Others used adjectives such as “listless” and “boring” to characterize Tuesday’s trading personality.

A producer and marketer agreed that as bidweek got going Tuesday, April prices tended to fall in tandem with the screen. One reported Transwestern Permian deals in the low $4.70s that morning followed by the mid $4.50s in the afternoon.

A producer was typical in saying bidweek was the usual slow starter, although he added that activity was picking up a bit Tuesday afternoon. Chicago citygates were trading in a basis range of plus 9.5-11 cents, although he judged “it would take about [plus] 10.5 to get anything done late this afternoon.”

A western utility buyer said he had seen San Juan-Blanco trade at $4.10 for April.

Florida remains in a low-demand period for now, said a utility buyer in the state. “It’s not really heating up enough yet to get air conditioners going” to any substantial degree, she said. The buyer was getting bidweek offers of Florida Gas Transmission Zone 2 at index flat to minus 2.5 cents.

A Northeast source also said April was looking weaker. Dracut basis was being reported at plus 54 cents last week but was going at plus 46-47 cents Tuesday, “and I’m pretty sure it will go lower.” He was also hearing Texas Eastern M-3 basis of plus 52-53 cents.

Analyst Thomas Driscoll of Lehman Brothers estimates that this week’s storage report will be an injection of about 45 Bcf (“25 Bcf less than our previous estimate of an injection of 70 Bcf due to colder than expected weather”). That compares to a withdrawal of 75 Bcf a year ago and a five-year average withdrawal of 65 Bcf, Driscoll said.

Meanwhile, Salomon Smith Barney’s Kyle Cooper apparently sees the end of withdrawal season as imminent, saying his estimation “looks for a draw of 8 Bcf to a build of 2 Bcf.”

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