Scattered points that were flat to a little more than a nickel higher Tuesday were heavily outweighed by losses of up to 20 cents or so. But despite heating load being fairly scarce outside the north central U.S., the futures advance of nearly 20 cents was believed likely to boost most if not all prices Wednesday.

Most of Tuesday’s losses were small at less than a dime. Many of the small gains were concentrated in the Midwest, where most of the colder weather is occurring, and its primary producing area, the Midcontinent. The Midcontinent chipped in a bit of heating demand of its own, as Wednesday’s high temperatures were expected in the 30s in Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

Currently the market is “boring” with almost no weather-driven load to speak of, commented a Northeast trader. Temperatures in the region will start falling again Wednesday, with snow showers predicted in parts of New York and northern New England, but he considered that “no big deal” for the gas market. However, the trader thought the screen’s strength Tuesday would be sufficient to rally cash numbers Wednesday.

Another source was a little dubious about that prediction. He believes expectations of a bearish storage report Thursday and the continuing substantial year-on-year storage surplus will keep prices on the slide.

A Midwest marketer who reported a flat $6.14 purchase at the Consumers Power citygate said her company was a bit puzzled by the strength of natural gas futures Tuesday. “How could they go higher when the national weather picture is so mild?” she asked. The gas screen certainly wasn’t being lifted by crude oil futures, which barely eked out a gain of 12 cents to $45.40/bbl after early weakness, she said.

The marketer did note that her area in the Upper Midwest was one of the few where heating demand is still somewhat strong, saying local weather was “kind of raw” Tuesday with snow expected from late that night through Wednesday.

The National Weather Service predicts normal temperatures throughout most of the U.S. during the Feb. 14-18 workweek. It sees below normal readings only in the Florida peninsula and in a strip along the Canadian border starting at the southwestern Oregon/Washington border and running through northern Wisconsin. The agency expects above normal temperatures in most of New England and in the Southwest states from Southern California through West and South Texas.

Analyst Thomas Driscoll of Lehman Brothers forecasted a storage withdrawal of 170 Bcf to be reported for the week ending Feb. 4.

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